Matsuoka vs Sun 2:1: result and our tips
·
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Matsuoka: 8 matches in a row over 18.5 games
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Matsuoka: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: H. Matsuoka 89% · Q. Sun 11%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 76% | 24% | 88% |
| 17.5 | 66% | 34% | 80% |
| 18.5 | 56% | 44% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 47% | 53% | 63% |
| 20.5 | 39% | 61% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 34% | 66% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 28% | 72% | 42% |
Sample: 1,550 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 19.5out · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
Match stats
| Hayato Matsuoka | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 3 |
| 4 | Double faults | 7 |
| 65% | First serves in | 65% |
| 69% | First-serve points won | 57% |
| 49% | Second-serve points won | 47% |
| 6/9 | Break points converted | 3/8 |
| 12/15 | Service games held | 9/15 |
| 62% | Service points won | 53% |
| 47% | Return points won | 38% |
| 110 | Total points won | 93 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Matsuoka | Tour | Q. Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 18% |
| Aces per service game | 0.35 | 0.47 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.32 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 14% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/23 | 0/1 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | — | |
| Matches in the sample | 73 | 3 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hayato Matsuoka
- 23/09/26LTaro Daniel#177ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 6:7
- 22/09/26WArthur Weber#409ATP Hangzhou · Q16:4 7:5
- 15/09/26LLloyd Harris#110Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R327:6 5:7 6:7
- 07/09/26LJake Delaney#357Challenger Shanghai · R326:2 6:7 6:7
- 01/09/26LEnzo Aguiard#439Challenger Zhangjiagang · R323:6 4:6
- 16/08/26WAziz Dougaz#430Challenger Astana · F0:6 6:1 7:6
- 15/08/26WKhumoyun Sultanov#444Challenger Astana · SF3:6 6:3 6:4
- 14/08/26WFajing Sun#303Challenger Astana · QF7:5 7:5
- 12/08/26WTakuya Kumasaka#615Challenger Astana · R166:4 6:1
- 10/08/26WKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Astana · R326:3 6:4
Qian Sun
- 03/05/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Wuxi · Q16:1 3:6 5:7
- 12/04/26LYuta Kikuchi#956Challenger Wuning 2 · Q15:7 3:6
- 07/04/26LDaniil Ostapenkov#529Challenger Wuning · R326:7 4:6
- 07/09/25LEvan Zhu#479Challenger Guangzhou 2 · Q11:6 7:6 4:6
- 24/08/25LKaichi Uchida#386Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q11:6 3:6
- 25/08/24LNorbert Gombos#355Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q12:6 6:7
- 11/10/23LJie Cui#420Challenger Shenzhen · R323:6 3:6
- 12/09/23LDane Sweeny#112Challenger Guangzhou · R321:6 2:6
- 11/09/23WToshihide MatsuiChallenger Guangzhou · Q26:7 6:0 7:6
- 10/09/23WJie Cui#420Challenger Guangzhou · Q13:6 6:2 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Matsuoka | Q. Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 41–2661% | 0–30% |
| Clay | 2–167% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 1–233% | 0–0 |
Head to head
H. Matsuoka 1–0 Q. Sun
- 03/05/26Winner: Hayato Matsuoka1:6 6:3 7:5