Mayo vs Smith 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Mayo 13 of 20, Smith 16 of 20 (tour average 62%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Smith: 4 matches in a row under 21.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Mayo 44% · C. Smith 56%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 48% | 52% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 32% |
Sample: 5,660 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 22.5out · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Aidan Mayo | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aces | 4 |
| 7 | Double faults | 1 |
| 57% | First serves in | 70% |
| 66% | First-serve points won | 65% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 49% |
| 3/15 | Break points converted | 4/14 |
| 11/15 | Service games held | 12/15 |
| 59% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 41% |
| 122 | Total points won | 122 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Mayo | Tour | C. Smith | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.58 | 0.42 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.36 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/25 | 10/19 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 72% | |
| Matches in the sample | 44 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Aidan Mayo
- 02/10/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#306Challenger Columbus · QF6:7 5:7
- 01/10/26WColton Smith#218Challenger Columbus · R166:2 7:6
- 30/09/26WNikita Samuel FilinChallenger Columbus · R326:4 6:4
- 21/09/26LSebastian Gorzny#406Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 4:6
- 20/09/26WJordan LeeChallenger San Diego 2 · Q16:2 6:2
- 15/09/26LRyan Seggerman#565Challenger Tiburon · R326:1 4:6 4:6
- 29/08/26WAndres Andrade#224Challenger Kingston 2 · F6:3 7:6
- 28/08/26WLuis Guto Miguel#541Challenger Kingston 2 · SF6:3 6:4
- 27/08/26WAndres Martin#338Challenger Kingston 2 · QF6:4 6:4
- 26/08/26WBenjamin Willwerth#848Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:4 2:6 6:4
Colton Smith
- 01/10/26LAidan Mayo#336Challenger Columbus · R162:6 6:7
- 29/09/26WDuncan Chan#472Challenger Columbus · R326:2 6:4
- 24/09/26LTimo Legout#351Challenger San Diego 2 · R163:6 3:6
- 22/09/26WStefan Kozlov#278Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:4 6:2
- 28/08/26LHugo Gaston#93ATP US Open · Q36:1 4:6 2:6
- 26/08/26WJerome Kym#223ATP US Open · Q27:6 2:6 6:4
- 25/08/26WAndrea Pellegrino#144ATP US Open · Q14:6 6:3 6:4
- 11/08/26LFelix Gill#227Challenger Brownsburg · R325:7 7:5 2:6
- 04/08/26LJay Friend#272Challenger Lexington · R327:5 6:7 3:6
- 26/07/26LRoger Pascual Ferra#684ATP Los Cabos · R166:4 2:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Mayo | C. Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1656% | 19–1753% |
| Clay | 4–357% | 3–633% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 3–260% |
Head to head
A. Mayo 2–0 C. Smith
- 01/10/26Winner: Aidan Mayo6:2 7:6
- 08/08/24Winner: Aidan Mayo6:3 7:6