ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Medjedovic vs Nakashima 1:2: result and our tips

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Hamad MedjedovicATP #76Elo 1911hard 1823
1:2final6:7(4) 7:6(4) 2:6
Brandon NakashimaATP #17Elo 2060hard 2031

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: NakashimaWon72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 72%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Medjedovic lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won69%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 69%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Medjedovic 13 of 20, Nakashima 15 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Medjedovic 9 of 20, Nakashima 10 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hamad Medjedovic27%
Brandon Nakashima73%

Elo: H. Medjedovic 23% · B. Nakashima 77%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Medjedovic15%
2:1 H. Medjedovic13%
2:1 B. Nakashima22%
2:0 B. Nakashima50%

First set

Hamad Medjedovic32%
Brandon Nakashima68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.576%24%68%
20.568%32%59%
21.560%40%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.546%54%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,141 matches

Games handicap

Brandon Nakashima −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes51%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 34 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Hamad MedjedovicBrandon Nakashima
14Aces27
3Double faults0
77%First serves in68%
82%First-serve points won86%
48%Second-serve points won63%
0/2Break points converted2/5
14/16Service games held16/16
74%Service points won79%
21%Return points won26%
89Total points won99

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. MedjedovicTourB. Nakashima
Service points won64%62%68%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held81%76%87%
Breaks of serve20%24%19%
Aces per service game0.610.76
Double faults per game0.290.10
Sets with a tie-break20%26%
Tie-breaks won12/2016/37
Wins in straight sets62%76%
Matches in the sample3856

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hamad Medjedovic

Brandon Nakashima

Elo over the last year

Hamad MedjedovicBrandon Nakashima

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. MedjedovicB. Nakashima
Hard court6–1135%24–1660%
Clay14–478%5–550%
Grass1–233%4–267%

Head to head

H. Medjedovic 0–1 B. Nakashima

  • 14/10/25Winner: Brandon Nakashima6:7 2:6

See also