Challenger AntofagastaChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Meligeni Alves vs Varillas 2:0: result and our tips

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Felipe Meligeni AlvesATP #453Elo 1661clay 1676
2:0final6:3 6:1
Juan Pablo VarillasATP #200Elo 1729clay 1736

Our tips

Our tip
No third setWon61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Meligeni Alves: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Under 22.5 gamesWon55%

    Where the number comes from: bookmakers 52% → us 55%

    Meligeni Alves: 6 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Felipe Meligeni Alves45%
Juan Pablo Varillas55%

Elo: F. Meligeni Alves 42% · J. Varillas 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Meligeni Alves26%
2:1 F. Meligeni Alves18%
2:1 J. Varillas21%
2:0 J. Varillas35%

First set

Felipe Meligeni Alves46%
Juan Pablo Varillas54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%69%
19.564%36%60%
20.557%43%53%
21.551%49%48%
22.545%55%41%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 4,578 matches

Games handicap

Juan Pablo Varillas −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 28%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Felipe Meligeni AlvesJuan Pablo Varillas
5Aces1
2Double faults0
69%First serves in59%
76%First-serve points won63%
53%Second-serve points won32%
4/6Break points converted0/3
8/8Service games held4/8
69%Service points won50%
50%Return points won32%
64Total points won44

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. Meligeni AlvesTourJ. Varillas
Service points won61%62%62%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held74%76%76%
Breaks of serve26%24%28%
Aces per service game0.310.38
Double faults per game0.150.16
Sets with a tie-break16%18%
Tie-breaks won6/1114/29
Wins in straight sets69%57%
Matches in the sample2971

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Juan Pablo Varillas

  • 25/09/26LJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo#342Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · QF2:6 4:6
  • 23/09/26WMurkel Dellien#407Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R164:6 7:5 6:4
  • 22/09/26WTomas Farjat#795Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R323:6 6:2 7:6
  • 11/09/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#136Challenger Genoa · QF1:6 6:7
  • 10/09/26WFrancesco Passaro#229Challenger Genoa · R167:5 6:1
  • 08/09/26WFederico Arnaboldi#478Challenger Genoa · R325:7 7:5 6:1
  • 06/09/26LMatej Dodig#174Challenger Como · F3:6 6:7
  • 05/09/26WJay Clarke#240Challenger Como · SF6:7 7:5 6:1
  • 04/09/26WThiago Seyboth Wild#136Challenger Como · QF4:6 7:6 4:3
  • 02/09/26WFederico Arnaboldi#478Challenger Como · R166:3 6:1

Elo over the last year

Felipe Meligeni AlvesJuan Pablo Varillas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. Meligeni AlvesJ. Varillas
Hard court2–340%0–10%
Clay11–1248%42–2860%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

F. Meligeni Alves 1–3 J. Varillas

  • 27/01/26Winner: Juan Pablo Varillas5:7 2:6
  • 23/02/25Winner: Felipe Meligeni Alves6:4 6:2
  • 08/11/23Winner: Juan Pablo Varillas6:7 7:6 4:6
  • 08/03/21Winner: Juan Pablo Varillas4:6 1:6

See also