Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Moeller vs Torres 2:0: result and our tips

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Marvin MoellerATP #239Elo 1752clay 1754
2:0final6:4 6:4
Tiago TorresATP #365Elo 1657clay 1659

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won68%

Where the number comes from: market alone 74% → with the players' profiles 68%

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Moeller 15 of 20, Torres 14 of 15 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost31%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 31%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Moeller 9 of 20, Torres 10 of 15 (tour average 30%); Torres: 3 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marvin Moeller64%
Tiago Torres36%

Elo: M. Moeller 63% · T. Torres 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Moeller42%
2:1 M. Moeller23%
2:1 T. Torres15%
2:0 T. Torres20%

First set

Marvin Moeller61%
Tiago Torres39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.568%32%68%
19.560%40%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.547%53%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.535%65%34%

Sample: 4,612 matches

Games handicap

Marvin Moeller −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Marvin MoellerTiago Torres
1Aces5
6Double faults5
56%First serves in57%
63%First-serve points won53%
47%Second-serve points won42%
5/11Break points converted3/10
7/10Service games held5/10
56%Service points won48%
52%Return points won44%
70Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. MoellerTourT. Torres
Service points won62%62%58%
Return points won41%38%41%
Service games held78%76%67%
Breaks of serve29%24%30%
Aces per service game0.280.27
Double faults per game0.200.39
Sets with a tie-break16%5%
Tie-breaks won11/152/2
Wins in straight sets57%29%
Matches in the sample4115

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marvin Moeller

  • 26/09/26LLuka Mikrut#167Challenger Genoa 2 · SF3:6 6:3 6:7
  • 25/09/26WDali Blanch#325Challenger Genoa 2 · QF6:3 4:6 6:3
  • 23/09/26WFederico Arnaboldi#478Challenger Genoa 2 · R166:4 6:4
  • 22/09/26WStefano Travaglia#173Challenger Genoa 2 · R326:4 4:6 6:2
  • 17/09/26LMarco Cecchinato#163Challenger Szczecin · R166:7 7:6 2:6
  • 15/09/26WDaniel Michalski#256Challenger Szczecin · R326:2 6:4
  • 09/09/26LMatias Soto#252Challenger Tulln · R164:6 6:3 0:6
  • 07/09/26WMaxim Mrva#217Challenger Tulln · R325:2
  • 27/08/26LCezar Cretu#276Challenger Augsburg · QF4:6 3:6
  • 26/08/26WMatias Soto#252Challenger Augsburg · R166:3 7:6

Tiago Torres

Elo over the last year

Marvin MoellerTiago Torres

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. MoellerT. Torres
Hard court6–460%2–340%
Clay22–971%5–550%

Head to head

They have not met yet.