Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Monteiro vs Moro Canas 2:0: result and our tips

·

Thiago MonteiroATP #236Elo 1761clay 1759
2:0final6:3 7:6(4)
Alejandro Moro CanasATP #232Elo 1731clay 1722

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Monteiro 13 of 20, Moro Canas 13 of 20 (tour average 52%); Monteiro: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost31%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Monteiro: 5 matches in a row over 26.5 games; Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Monteiro 9 of 20, Moro Canas 6 of 20 (tour average 26%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Thiago Monteiro53%
Alejandro Moro Canas47%

Elo: T. Monteiro 55% · A. Moro Canas 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Monteiro33%
2:1 T. Monteiro20%
2:1 A. Moro Canas19%
2:0 A. Moro Canas28%

First set

Thiago Monteiro53%
Alejandro Moro Canas47%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%68%
19.566%34%59%
20.558%42%52%
21.552%48%46%
22.546%54%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%61%34%

Sample: 4,470 matches

Games handicap

Thiago Monteiro −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Thiago MonteiroAlejandro Moro Canas
2Aces3
3Double faults2
60%First serves in58%
72%First-serve points won75%
49%Second-serve points won45%
2/4Break points converted1/6
10/11Service games held8/10
63%Service points won62%
38%Return points won37%
78Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. MonteiroTourA. Moro Canas
Service points won64%62%62%
Return points won38%38%39%
Service games held80%76%75%
Breaks of serve24%24%27%
Aces per service game0.360.29
Double faults per game0.180.16
Sets with a tie-break17%22%
Tie-breaks won11/2321/39
Wins in straight sets58%54%
Matches in the sample5572

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Thiago Monteiro

Alejandro Moro Canas

Elo over the last year

Thiago MonteiroAlejandro Moro Canas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. MonteiroA. Moro Canas
Hard court0–018–1260%
Clay33–2260%21–1854%
Grass0–02–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also