WTA BeijingWTA 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Muchová vs Osaka 2:1: result and our tips

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Karolína MuchováWTA #7Elo 2145hard 2123
2:1final7:5 1:6 7:6(7)
Naomi OsakaWTA #18Elo 2102hard 2069

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Karolína Muchová57%
Naomi Osaka43%

Elo: K. Muchová 58% · N. Osaka 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Muchová35%
2:1 K. Muchová20%
2:1 N. Osaka18%
2:0 N. Osaka27%

First set

Karolína Muchová54%
Naomi Osaka46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%63%
19.560%40%55%
20.554%46%48%
21.549%51%43%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,362 matches

Games handicap

Karolína Muchová −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Karolína MuchováNaomi Osaka
4Aces11
1Double faults1
59%First serves in64%
69%First-serve points won63%
43%Second-serve points won58%
4/18Break points converted5/10
10/15Service games held12/16
59%Service points won61%
39%Return points won42%
108Total points won117

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. MuchováTourN. Osaka
Service points won62%56%62%
Return points won44%44%42%
Service games held77%63%77%
Breaks of serve35%37%33%
Aces per service game0.320.53
Double faults per game0.170.25
Sets with a tie-break6%13%
Tie-breaks won7/89/13
Wins in straight sets63%63%
Matches in the sample5643

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Karolína Muchová

Naomi Osaka

Elo over the last year

Karolína MuchováNaomi Osaka

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. MuchováN. Osaka
Hard court26–876%17–674%
Clay6–367%7–370%
Grass11–285%8–280%

Head to head

K. Muchová 4–3 N. Osaka

  • 07/07/26Winner: Karolína Muchová7:6 6:4
  • 27/06/26Winner: Karolína Muchová6:1 1:0
  • 03/09/25Winner: Naomi Osaka4:6 6:7
  • 15/01/25Winner: Naomi Osaka6:1 1:6 3:6
  • 29/08/24Winner: Karolína Muchová6:3 7:6
  • 02/05/21Winner: Karolína Muchová6:4 3:6 6:1
  • 24/08/20Winner: Naomi Osaka7:6 4:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Karolína Muchová

Naomi Osaka

See also