Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Nannelli vs Sakellaridis 0:2: result and our tips

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Mattia NannelliElo 1500clay 1500
0:2final5:7 3:6
Dimitris SakellaridisATP #555Elo 1477clay 1488

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mattia Nannelli26%
Dimitris Sakellaridis74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Nannelli14%
2:1 M. Nannelli13%
2:1 D. Sakellaridis23%
2:0 D. Sakellaridis51%

First set

Mattia Nannelli32%
Dimitris Sakellaridis68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 54%market (no margin): 47%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%30%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.548%52%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.537%63%36%
24.535%65%34%

Sample: 3,295 matches

Games handicap

Dimitris Sakellaridis −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Mattia NannelliDimitris Sakellaridis
0Aces5
2Double faults3
71%First serves in61%
68%First-serve points won71%
47%Second-serve points won47%
1/10Break points converted3/5
7/10Service games held10/11
62%Service points won62%
38%Return points won38%
71Total points won79

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. NannelliTourD. Sakellaridis
Service points won—62%57%
Return points won—38%42%
Service games held—76%68%
Breaks of serve—24%33%
Aces per service game—0.26
Double faults per game—0.28
Sets with a tie-break—7%
Tie-breaks won—1/3
Wins in straight sets—67%
Matches in the sample—19

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mattia Nannelli

No matches on record.

Dimitris Sakellaridis

  • 11/10/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Catania · Q11:6 3:6
  • 06/10/26LZdenek Kolar#206Challenger Palermo · R324:6 4:6
  • 05/10/26WM. Cerny#678Challenger Palermo · Q23:6 6:1 7:6
  • 04/10/26WRobert Guna#858Challenger Palermo · Q17:5 6:4
  • 28/09/26LM. W. Donald#416Challenger Bari · Q25:7 6:7
  • 27/09/26WFilippo Francesco GarberoChallenger Bari · Q17:5 6:1
  • 21/09/26LLorenzo BertoChallenger Genoa 2 · Q26:1 5:7 4:6
  • 20/09/26WAlessandro CeppelliniChallenger Genoa 2 · Q16:3 6:2
  • 14/09/26LAlex Marti Pujolras#484Challenger Biella · Q21:6 1:6
  • 13/09/26WLorenzo BeraldoChallenger Biella · Q17:5 6:3

Elo over the last year

Mattia NannelliDimitris Sakellaridis

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. NannelliD. Sakellaridis
Hard court0–01–325%
Clay0–08–753%

Head to head

They have not met yet.