Navone vs Carreno Busta 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Navone: 6 matches in a row under 25.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 43%
Carreno Busta: 5 matches in a row under 21.5 games; Under 21.5 games in recent matches: Navone 11 of 20, Carreno Busta 12 of 20 (tour average 46%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Navone 51% · P. Carreno Busta 49%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 70% | 30% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 42% | 58% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
Sample: 5,735 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 22.5out · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 6 |
| 2 | Double faults | 1 |
| 66% | First serves in | 62% |
| 75% | First-serve points won | 73% |
| 46% | Second-serve points won | 56% |
| 2/14 | Break points converted | 3/10 |
| 12/15 | Service games held | 14/16 |
| 65% | Service points won | 67% |
| 33% | Return points won | 35% |
| 97 | Total points won | 102 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Navone | Tour | P. Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 42% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 31% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.15 | 0.25 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/21 | 11/19 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 50% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 56 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Mariano Navone
- 01/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Beijing · R326:7 2:6
- 04/09/26LTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP US Open · R324:6 4:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WMatteo Berrettini#46ATP US Open · R643:6 6:3 6:4 7:6
- 30/08/26WNovak Djokovic#8ATP US Open · R1287:6 5:7 4:6 6:2 6:1
- 25/08/26LJames Duckworth#64ATP Winston Salem · R323:6 6:7
- 15/08/26LAlexander Blockx#28ATP Cincinnati · R643:6 4:6
- 13/08/26WRaphael Collignon#50ATP Cincinnati · R1286:3 7:6
- 06/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Montreal · R323:6 2:6
- 05/08/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP Montreal · R641:6 6:3 6:3
- 03/08/26WMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Montreal · R1286:3 6:7 6:3
Pablo Carreno Busta
- 02/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Beijing · R324:6 2:6
- 29/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Beijing · Q26:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WYi Zhou#277ATP Beijing · Q17:5 6:3
- 30/08/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP US Open · R1281:6 6:7 6:4 2:6
- 23/08/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 0:3
- 16/08/26LAndrey Rublev#23ATP Cincinnati · R646:7 1:6
- 14/08/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Cincinnati · R1286:3 6:2
- 04/08/26LValentin Royer#105ATP Montreal · R1286:1 5:7 2:6
- 23/07/26LLuca Van Assche#45ATP Estoril · R163:6 6:4 2:6
- 21/07/26WVilius Gaubas#141ATP Estoril · R326:1 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Navone | P. Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1052% | 15–1452% |
| Clay | 26–1465% | 18–772% |
| Grass | 0–20% | 1–150% |
Head to head
M. Navone 1–0 P. Carreno Busta
- 28/05/24Winner: Mariano Navone5:7 6:1 6:3 6:0