ATP Brussels250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Navone vs Cerúndolo 2:0: result and our tips

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Mariano NavoneATP #45Elo 1950hard 1883
2:0final7:6(10) 6:2
Juan Manuel CerúndoloATP #53Elo 1941hard 1852

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cerundolo: 6 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 20.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 21.5Won43%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 43%

Under 21.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mariano Navone61%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo39%

Elo: M. Navone 54% · J. Cerúndolo 46%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Navone38%
2:1 M. Navone22%
2:1 J. Cerúndolo18%
2:0 J. Cerúndolo23%

First set

Mariano Navone57%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%30%68%
20.563%37%60%
21.557%43%54%
22.549%51%46%
23.543%57%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.538%63%35%

Sample: 5,846 matches

Games handicap

Mariano Navone −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Mariano NavoneJuan Manuel Cerúndolo
3Aces2
1Double faults2
69%First serves in51%
66%First-serve points won63%
57%Second-serve points won55%
3/5Break points converted1/3
9/10Service games held7/10
63%Service points won59%
41%Return points won37%
69Total points won62

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. NavoneTourJ. Cerúndolo
Service points won61%62%63%
Return points won42%38%38%
Service games held75%76%78%
Breaks of serve31%24%24%
Aces per service game0.160.42
Double faults per game0.180.23
Sets with a tie-break13%17%
Tie-breaks won11/2113/27
Wins in straight sets65%58%
Matches in the sample6464

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mariano Navone

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Elo over the last year

Mariano NavoneJuan Manuel Cerúndolo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. NavoneJ. Cerúndolo
Hard court11–1150%11–1052%
Clay26–1465%25–1563%
Grass0–20%2–250%

Head to head

M. Navone 3–1 J. Cerúndolo

  • 12/07/25Winner: Mariano Navone6:3 7:5
  • 16/09/23Winner: Mariano Navone6:4 3:0
  • 01/10/22Winner: Juan Manuel Cerúndolo3:6 5:7
  • 23/09/22Winner: Mariano Navone6:2 7:6

See also