Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Nikles vs Damas 0:2: result and our tips

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Johan NiklesATP #399Elo 1656clay 1664
0:2final4:6 3:6
Miguel DamasATP #349Elo 1604clay 1604

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 60%

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Nikles 15 of 20, Damas 13 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Won45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 45%

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Nikles 12 of 20, Damas 11 of 20 (tour average 41%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Johan Nikles44%
Miguel Damas56%

Elo: J. Nikles 59% · M. Damas 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Nikles25%
2:1 J. Nikles18%
2:1 M. Damas21%
2:0 M. Damas36%

First set

Johan Nikles45%
Miguel Damas56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 57%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.570%30%76%
18.561%39%68%
19.555%45%59%
20.549%51%52%
21.543%57%47%
22.540%60%40%
23.537%63%36%

Sample: 4,681 matches

Games handicap

Miguel Damas −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes16%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Johan NiklesMiguel Damas
0Aces1
3Double faults5
62%First serves in60%
56%First-serve points won57%
38%Second-serve points won52%
3/8Break points converted5/5
4/9Service games held7/10
49%Service points won55%
45%Return points won51%
60Total points won68

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. NiklesTourM. Damas
Service points won57%62%56%
Return points won45%38%42%
Service games held67%76%63%
Breaks of serve37%24%31%
Aces per service game0.180.14
Double faults per game0.220.27
Sets with a tie-break1%15%
Tie-breaks won1/111/20
Wins in straight sets67%72%
Matches in the sample3459

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Johan Nikles

  • 05/10/26WVladyslav Orlov#507Challenger Braga · Q26:0 6:3
  • 04/10/26WMartim BernardoChallenger Braga · Q16:1 6:2
  • 15/09/26LLaslo Djere#179Challenger Szczecin · R327:6 3:6 0:6
  • 14/09/26WM. Cerny#705Challenger Szczecin · Q26:3 6:2
  • 13/09/26WSaba Purtseladze#581Challenger Szczecin · Q16:2 6:4
  • 05/09/26LMatej Dodig#174Challenger Como · SF3:6 0:6
  • 04/09/26WAndrej Nedic#244Challenger Como · QF4:6 6:2 6:1
  • 03/09/26WFilip Cristian Jianu#289Challenger Como · R166:1 6:3
  • 01/09/26WOlle Wallin#423Challenger Como · R326:4 3:6 6:4
  • 31/08/26WLorenzo Rottoli#805Challenger Como · Q27:5 2:6 7:5

Miguel Damas

Elo over the last year

Johan NiklesMiguel Damas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. NiklesM. Damas
Hard court4–450%4–640%
Clay17–965%21–2843%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Johan Nikles

  • 04/10/26WMartim BernardoChallenger Braga · Q16:1 6:2
  • 05/10/26WVladyslav Orlov#507Challenger Braga · Q26:0 6:3

Miguel Damas

First match in this tournament.