WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets

Palicova vs Ortenzi 0:2: result and our tips

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Barbora PalicovaWTA #187Elo 1431clay 1449
0:2final4:6 6:7(1)
Jazmin OrtenziWTA #155Elo 1563clay 1587

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Won75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Palicova: 17 matches in a row over 17.5 games; Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Palicova 19 of 20, Ortenzi 13 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: PalicovaLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Ortenzi lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: OrtenziWon46%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Palicova lost the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Ortenzi won the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Barbora Palicova62%
Jazmin Ortenzi38%

Elo: B. Palicova 31% · J. Ortenzi 69%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Palicova36%
2:1 B. Palicova22%
2:1 J. Ortenzi17%
2:0 J. Ortenzi25%

First set

Barbora Palicova54%
Jazmin Ortenzi46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%47%45%
21.549%51%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,491 matches

Games handicap

Barbora Palicova −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Barbora PalicovaJazmin Ortenzi
0Aces1
5Double faults5
56%First serves in61%
50%First-serve points won58%
49%Second-serve points won50%
4/9Break points converted5/8
6/11Service games held7/11
49%Service points won55%
45%Return points won51%
79Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. PalicovaTourJ. Ortenzi
Service points won52%56%53%
Return points won45%44%46%
Service games held55%63%57%
Breaks of serve38%37%45%
Aces per service game0.120.07
Double faults per game0.350.25
Sets with a tie-break8%10%
Tie-breaks won2/43/7
Wins in straight sets43%67%
Matches in the sample2130

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Barbora Palicova

  • 24/09/26LEkaterine Gorgodze#154WTA 125 Tolentino · R165:7 5:7
  • 22/09/26WAlicia Herrero Linana#222WTA 125 Tolentino · R326:7 6:1 7:5
  • 16/09/26LSamira de Stefano#185WTA 125 Ljubljana · R161:6 5:7
  • 14/09/26WGina Feistel#332WTA 125 Ljubljana · R327:5 6:1
  • 10/09/26LFiona Ferro#105WTA 125 Montreux · R164:6 4:6
  • 08/09/26WAlice Tubello#218WTA 125 Montreux · R323:6 6:4 6:1
  • 18/07/26LMai Hontama#164WTA Prague · Q13:6 3:6
  • 15/07/26LMaria Carle#238WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R166:0 1:6 3:6
  • 14/07/26WMartina Colmegna#325WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R323:6 7:6 6:1
  • 12/07/26LMartina Colmegna#325WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · Q13:6 6:7

Jazmin Ortenzi

  • 17/09/26LPaula Badosa#58WTA Sao Paulo · R166:4 2:6 2:6
  • 16/09/26WChloe Paquet#313WTA Sao Paulo · R326:3 6:2
  • 09/09/26LMary Stoiana#114WTA 125 Barranquilla · R323:6 2:6
  • 24/08/26LHimeno Sakatsume#115WTA US Open · Q13:6 1:6
  • 23/06/26LKatherine Sebov#228WTA Wimbledon · Q16:4 3:6 2:6
  • 18/06/26LElizara Yaneva#146WTA 125 Brescia · R162:6 1:6
  • 16/06/26WFrancesca Pace#274WTA 125 Brescia · R326:3 6:3
  • 08/06/26LKaitlin Quevedo#76WTA 125 Modena · R323:6 4:6
  • 07/06/26WViola Turini#503WTA 125 Modena · Q10:6 7:5 6:0
  • 20/05/26LAlina Korneeva#74WTA French Open · Q26:4 4:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Barbora PalicovaJazmin Ortenzi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. PalicovaJ. Ortenzi
Hard court1–614%2–433%
Clay6–843%13–1057%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

B. Palicova 1–0 J. Ortenzi

  • 24/06/25Winner: Barbora Palicova6:3 6:4