Challenger JinanChallenger 175Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Pankin vs Watanuki 0:2: result and our tips

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Semen PankinATP #432Elo 1477hard 1474
0:2final1:6 0:6
Yosuke WatanukiATP #406Elo 1693hard 1687

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: WatanukiWon69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Pankin lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Lost57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Pankin 12 of 19, Watanuki 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Semen Pankin31%
Yosuke Watanuki69%

Elo: S. Pankin 23% · Y. Watanuki 77%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Pankin18%
2:1 S. Pankin14%
2:1 Y. Watanuki22%
2:0 Y. Watanuki47%

First set

Semen Pankin36%
Yosuke Watanuki64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 53%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%71%
19.565%35%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.552%48%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.539%61%37%
24.537%63%35%

Sample: 4,788 matches

Games handicap

Yosuke Watanuki −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 13 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Semen PankinYosuke Watanuki
0Aces4
5Double faults1
59%First serves in43%
39%First-serve points won72%
38%Second-serve points won71%
0/2Break points converted5/6
1/6Service games held7/7
39%Service points won71%
29%Return points won62%
27Total points won54

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. PankinTourY. Watanuki
Service points won62%62%60%
Return points won37%38%39%
Service games held77%76%71%
Breaks of serve21%24%28%
Aces per service game0.440.63
Double faults per game0.290.28
Sets with a tie-break11%14%
Tie-breaks won2/56/9
Wins in straight sets75%67%
Matches in the sample1926

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Semen Pankin

  • 05/10/26LMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Wuning 3 · R325:7 4:6
  • 29/09/26LAlex Bolt#170Challenger Jingshan · R323:6 2:6
  • 14/09/26LElias Ymer#192Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R327:5 5:7 3:6
  • 07/09/26LAlexis Galarneau#184Challenger Shanghai · R326:7 4:6
  • 31/08/26LYosuke Watanuki#406Challenger Zhangjiagang · R323:6 5:7
  • 12/08/26LFajing Sun#303Challenger Astana · R166:4 6:7 3:6
  • 10/08/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Astana · R326:1 6:4
  • 03/08/26LFajing Sun#303Challenger Istanbul 2 · R324:6 1:6
  • 30/07/26LManas Dhamne#402Challenger Samsun · R162:6 6:1 5:7
  • 28/07/26WTogan TokacChallenger Samsun · R326:3 6:3

Yosuke Watanuki

Elo over the last year

Semen PankinYosuke Watanuki

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. PankinY. Watanuki
Hard court8–1142%12–1055%
Clay0–00–40%

Head to head

S. Pankin 0–1 Y. Watanuki

  • 31/08/26Winner: Yosuke Watanuki3:6 5:7