Challenger Fort WorthChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Pascual Ferra vs Chan 1:2: result and our tips

·

Roger Pascual FerraATP #652Elo 1580hard 1573
1:2final6:7(4) 6:2 3:6
Duncan ChanATP #483Elo 1657hard 1637

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Roger Pascual Ferra43%
Duncan Chan57%

Elo: R. Pascual Ferra 41% · D. Chan 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Pascual Ferra26%
2:1 R. Pascual Ferra17%
2:1 D. Chan21%
2:0 D. Chan37%

First set

Roger Pascual Ferra45%
Duncan Chan55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%29%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,756 matches

Games handicap

Duncan Chan −1.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Roger Pascual FerraDuncan Chan
0Aces4
1Double faults8
67%First serves in55%
65%First-serve points won75%
50%Second-serve points won41%
4/9Break points converted3/10
11/14Service games held11/15
60%Service points won60%
40%Return points won40%
99Total points won101

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. Pascual FerraTourD. Chan
Service points won60%62%61%
Return points won41%38%40%
Service games held73%76%75%
Breaks of serve30%24%26%
Aces per service game0.190.36
Double faults per game0.230.31
Sets with a tie-break0%15%
Tie-breaks won0/03/6
Wins in straight sets83%50%
Matches in the sample1217

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Duncan Chan

  • 29/09/26LColton Smith#212Challenger Columbus · R322:6 4:6
  • 28/09/26WKeaton Hance#776Challenger Columbus · Q26:3 6:2
  • 27/09/26WDenis PetakChallenger Columbus · Q16:7 6:3 7:6
  • 19/08/26LTaro Daniel#177Challenger Quebec City · R323:6 2:6
  • 04/08/26LThiago Agustin Tirante#54ATP Montreal · R1283:6 6:1 6:7
  • 01/08/26WHugo Gaston#89ATP Montreal · Q12:6 7:5 6:3
  • 28/07/26LDane Sweeny#112Challenger Vancouver · R324:6 1:6
  • 23/07/26LShintaro Mochizuki#123Challenger Winnipeg · R162:6 6:2 4:6
  • 21/07/26WJames McCabe#259Challenger Winnipeg · R327:6 4:6 7:5
  • 20/07/26WCesar Bouchelaghem#472Challenger Winnipeg · Q23:6 7:6 6:3

Elo over the last year

Roger Pascual FerraDuncan Chan

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. Pascual FerraD. Chan
Hard court6–650%10–759%

Head to head

They have not met yet.