Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Paul vs McDonald 2:1: result and our tips

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Jakub PaulElo 1644hard 1603
2:1final6:3 6:7(2) 7:5
Niels McDonaldATP #491Elo 1545hard 1456

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost56%

Where the number comes from: market alone 53% → with the players' profiles 56%

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Paul 10 of 15, McDonald 16 of 20 (tour average 58%); McDonald: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Paul 11 of 15, McDonald 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost43%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 43%

McDonald: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games; Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Paul 7 of 15, McDonald 13 of 20 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jakub Paul50%
Niels McDonald50%

Elo: J. Paul 70% · N. McDonald 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Paul31%
2:1 J. Paul19%
2:1 N. McDonald19%
2:0 N. McDonald31%

First set

Jakub Paul50%
Niels McDonald50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 53%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,095 matches

Games handicap

Jakub Paul −0.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 34 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Jakub PaulNiels McDonald
0Aces3
1Double faults5
59%First serves in63%
64%First-serve points won72%
61%Second-serve points won45%
4/9Break points converted2/9
15/17Service games held12/16
63%Service points won62%
38%Return points won37%
113Total points won108

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. PaulTourN. McDonald
Service points won59%62%58%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held72%76%68%
Breaks of serve24%24%22%
Aces per service game0.230.25
Double faults per game0.100.34
Sets with a tie-break9%9%
Tie-breaks won3/31/5
Wins in straight sets67%50%
Matches in the sample1526

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jakub Paul

Niels McDonald

Elo over the last year

Jakub PaulNiels McDonald

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. PaulN. McDonald
Hard court1–420%1–614%
Clay5–550%7–1237%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also