Challenger JinanChallenger 175Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Pavlovic vs Fancutt 2:0: result and our tips

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Luka PavlovicATP #207Elo 1674hard 1659
2:0final7:5 6:3
Thomas FancuttATP #697Elo 1493hard 1471

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 63%

Fancutt: 8 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fancutt: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Luka Pavlovic78%
Thomas Fancutt22%

Elo: L. Pavlovic 75% · T. Fancutt 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Pavlovic56%
2:1 L. Pavlovic22%
2:1 T. Fancutt10%
2:0 T. Fancutt12%

First set

Luka Pavlovic72%
Thomas Fancutt28%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 54%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.567%33%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.538%63%37%
24.533%67%35%

Sample: 3,266 matches

Games handicap

Luka Pavlovic −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes38%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Luka PavlovicThomas Fancutt
4Aces5
1Double faults4
51%First serves in68%
89%First-serve points won74%
77%Second-serve points won45%
2/4Break points converted0/0
11/11Service games held8/10
83%Service points won65%
36%Return points won17%
66Total points won49

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. PavlovicTourT. Fancutt
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won34%38%37%
Service games held80%76%77%
Breaks of serve18%24%22%
Aces per service game0.820.57
Double faults per game0.350.33
Sets with a tie-break21%10%
Tie-breaks won15/273/4
Wins in straight sets58%56%
Matches in the sample5318

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luka Pavlovic

Thomas Fancutt

  • 28/09/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Jingshan · Q14:6 4:6
  • 15/09/26LMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R322:6 3:6
  • 14/09/26LJames Kent Trotter#464Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q23:6 2:6
  • 13/09/26WZijiang YangChallenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q16:4 7:6
  • 06/09/26LMaxime Janvier#640Challenger Cassis · Q11:5
  • 26/08/26LLuis Guto Miguel#603Challenger Kingston 2 · R162:6 3:6
  • 25/08/26WKarl Poling#459Challenger Kingston 2 · R326:4 6:3
  • 24/08/26WBruno Kuzuhara#683Challenger Kingston 2 · Q26:4 6:4
  • 23/08/26WEnmanuel MunozChallenger Kingston 2 · Q16:4 6:2
  • 19/07/26LDaniel Milavsky#315Challenger Winnipeg · Q14:6 6:3 5:7

Elo over the last year

Luka PavlovicThomas Fancutt

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. PavlovicT. Fancutt
Hard court14–1352%6–746%
Clay11–1346%3–260%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.