WTA 125 MallorcaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Pigossi vs Brancaccio 0:2: result and our tips

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Laura PigossiWTA #243Elo 1455clay 1469
0:2final0:6 4:6
Nuria BrancaccioWTA #232Elo 1550clay 1569

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Brancaccio: 8 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Pigossi 14 of 20, Brancaccio 14 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BrancaccioWon69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Pigossi lost 8 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: BrancaccioWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Pigossi lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Brancaccio won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost48%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Pigossi 12 of 20, Brancaccio 10 of 20 (tour average 42%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Laura Pigossi31%
Nuria Brancaccio69%

Elo: L. Pigossi 36% · N. Brancaccio 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Pigossi18%
2:1 L. Pigossi16%
2:1 N. Brancaccio23%
2:0 N. Brancaccio43%

First set

Laura Pigossi40%
Nuria Brancaccio61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%68%
18.567%33%59%
19.559%41%52%
20.552%48%46%
21.548%52%42%
22.542%58%37%
23.538%62%33%

Sample: 1,330 matches

Games handicap

Nuria Brancaccio −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Laura PigossiNuria Brancaccio
—Aces—
2Double faults3
47%First serves in86%
46%First-serve points won55%
31%Second-serve points won50%
3/4Break points converted7/10
1/8Service games held5/8
38%Service points won55%
46%Return points won62%
41Total points won58

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. PigossiTourN. Brancaccio
Service points won50%56%53%
Return points won44%44%46%
Service games held52%63%56%
Breaks of serve37%37%40%
Aces per service game0.130.15
Double faults per game0.320.28
Sets with a tie-break9%9%
Tie-breaks won3/72/7
Wins in straight sets40%62%
Matches in the sample3233

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Laura Pigossi

Nuria Brancaccio

Elo over the last year

Laura PigossiNuria Brancaccio

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. PigossiN. Brancaccio
Hard court1–517%0–30%
Clay9–1636%13–1645%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

L. Pigossi 0–1 N. Brancaccio

  • 10/09/24Winner: Nuria Brancaccio4:6 4:6

See also