Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Piros vs Moller 1:2: result and our tips

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Zsombor PirosATP #114Elo 1882clay 1880
1:2final6:1 1:6 5:7
Elmer MollerATP #181Elo 1697clay 1719

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 58%

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Piros 15 of 20, Moller 13 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: PirosLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Piros won 7 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Piros 15 of 20, Moller 15 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Piros 2-0Lost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Piros won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches, Moller lost 0-2 in 6 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Zsombor Piros62%
Elmer Moller38%

Elo: Z. Piros 72% · E. Moller 28%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Z. Piros41%
2:1 Z. Piros23%
2:1 E. Moller16%
2:0 E. Moller21%

First set

Zsombor Piros60%
Elmer Moller40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.568%32%68%
19.560%40%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.547%53%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,731 matches

Games handicap

Zsombor Piros −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Zsombor PirosElmer Moller
2Aces3
5Double faults6
59%First serves in67%
46%First-serve points won55%
42%Second-serve points won42%
7/12Break points converted8/14
5/13Service games held6/13
45%Service points won51%
49%Return points won55%
80Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Z. PirosTourE. Moller
Service points won63%62%57%
Return points won39%38%42%
Service games held80%76%66%
Breaks of serve28%24%31%
Aces per service game0.360.20
Double faults per game0.200.47
Sets with a tie-break13%13%
Tie-breaks won11/1810/14
Wins in straight sets62%76%
Matches in the sample6148

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Zsombor Piros

Elmer Moller

Elo over the last year

Zsombor PirosElmer Moller

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Z. PirosE. Moller
Hard court12–571%2–625%
Clay29–1369%23–1757%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

Z. Piros 1–0 E. Moller

  • 15/05/26Winner: Zsombor Piros6:2 3:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Zsombor Piros

Elmer Moller