Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Pleshivtsev vs Castelnuovo 0:2: result and our tips

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Egor PleshivtsevATP #853Elo 1440hard 1439
0:2final6:7(5) 4:6
Luca CastelnuovoATP #449Elo 1491hard 1501

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Egor Pleshivtsev36%
Luca Castelnuovo64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Pleshivtsev21%
2:1 E. Pleshivtsev15%
2:1 L. Castelnuovo22%
2:0 L. Castelnuovo42%

First set

Egor Pleshivtsev40%
Luca Castelnuovo60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 59%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%34%62%
20.559%42%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 5,545 matches

Games handicap

Luca Castelnuovo −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Egor PleshivtsevLuca Castelnuovo
13Aces15
2Double faults4
56%First serves in63%
72%First-serve points won95%
65%Second-serve points won54%
0/3Break points converted1/2
10/11Service games held11/11
69%Service points won80%
20%Return points won31%
61Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. PleshivtsevTourL. Castelnuovo
Service points won—62%64%
Return points won—38%35%
Service games held—76%80%
Breaks of serve—24%18%
Aces per service game—0.66
Double faults per game—0.25
Sets with a tie-break—14%
Tie-breaks won—5/10
Wins in straight sets—58%
Matches in the sample—30

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Egor Pleshivtsev

Luca Castelnuovo

  • 05/10/26LAkira Santillan#309Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 6:3 6:7
  • 22/09/26LPavel Kotov#172ATP Chengdu · Q17:6 5:7 5:7
  • 16/09/26LElias Ymer#228Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R166:7 4:6
  • 15/09/26WOmar Jasika#388Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R326:7 6:2 1:0
  • 12/09/26LIlya Ivashka#221Challenger Shanghai · SF3:6 4:6
  • 11/09/26WJi Sung Nam#819Challenger Shanghai · QF6:4 6:4
  • 10/09/26WTung-Lin Wu#353Challenger Shanghai · R167:5 6:4
  • 08/09/26WChun Hsin Tseng#217Challenger Shanghai · R323:6 7:6 6:2
  • 07/09/26WTsung-Hao Huang#803Challenger Shanghai · Q26:4 6:2
  • 01/09/26LMatthew Dellavedova#250Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:4 3:6 1:4

Elo over the last year

Egor PleshivtsevLuca Castelnuovo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. PleshivtsevL. Castelnuovo
Hard court0–10%10–1343%
Clay0–01–325%
Grass0–01–233%

Head to head

They have not met yet.