Challenger Fort WorthChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Poling vs Rybakov 0:2: result and our tips

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Karl PolingATP #459Elo 1438hard 1433
0:2final4:6 4:6
Alex RybakovATP #707Elo 1532hard 1504

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: RybakovWon58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rybakov: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: RybakovWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Poling lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Poling 13 of 20, Rybakov 8 of 20 (tour average 37%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Karl Poling39%
Alex Rybakov61%

Elo: K. Poling 40% · A. Rybakov 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Poling23%
2:1 K. Poling16%
2:1 A. Rybakov22%
2:0 A. Rybakov39%

First set

Karl Poling42%
Alex Rybakov58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,819 matches

Games handicap

Alex Rybakov −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Karl PolingAlex Rybakov
0Aces4
—Double faults—
77%First serves in72%
61%First-serve points won72%
92%Second-serve points won67%
0/2Break points converted2/3
8/10Service games held10/10
68%Service points won70%
30%Return points won32%
58Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. PolingTourA. Rybakov
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held78%76%75%
Breaks of serve25%24%20%
Aces per service game0.220.42
Double faults per game0.250.26
Sets with a tie-break24%14%
Tie-breaks won7/245/10
Wins in straight sets55%70%
Matches in the sample4230

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Karl Poling

  • 27/09/26LPatrick Zahraj#511Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q16:3 3:6 2:6
  • 22/09/26LTitouan Droguet#72Challenger Saint Tropez · R327:6 4:6 6:7
  • 21/09/26LMoez Echargui#356Challenger Saint Tropez · Q24:6 6:7
  • 20/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#509Challenger Saint Tropez · Q16:2 6:1
  • 13/09/26LNikola Slavic#824Challenger Rennes · Q16:7 7:6 6:7
  • 25/08/26LThomas Fancutt#697Challenger Kingston 2 · R324:6 3:6
  • 17/08/26LStefanos Sakellaridis#135Challenger Quebec City · Q16:3 3:6 2:6
  • 02/08/26LAidan Kim#636Challenger Lexington · Q12:6 4:6
  • 28/07/26LTyler Zink#344Challenger Vancouver · Q26:3 3:6 5:7
  • 28/07/26WKokoro Isomura#657Challenger Vancouver · Q16:3 6:4

Alex Rybakov

  • 28/09/26LLuca Staeheli#431Challenger Columbus · Q26:4 3:6 3:6
  • 27/09/26WMatthew Forbes#764Challenger Columbus · Q17:5 6:3
  • 21/09/26LOzan Baris#408Challenger San Diego 2 · Q26:1 3:6 4:6
  • 20/09/26WKarue SellChallenger San Diego 2 · Q16:3 6:4
  • 14/09/26LRyan Seggerman#620Challenger Tiburon · Q26:7 3:6
  • 13/09/26WDan Martin#646Challenger Tiburon · Q16:4 6:2
  • 23/08/26LOliver Bonding#714Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q17:5 4:6 3:6
  • 19/08/26LCharles Broom#268Challenger Roehampton · R165:7 3:6
  • 18/08/26WFaris Zakaria#544Challenger Roehampton · R326:1 7:6
  • 07/07/26LAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Newport · Q26:3 4:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Karl PolingAlex Rybakov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. PolingA. Rybakov
Hard court14–1942%7–1532%
Clay6–367%2–433%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.