Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Saraiva Dos Santos vs De la Fuente 0:2: result and our tips

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Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos SantosATP #436Elo 1538clay 1525
0:2final6:7(4) 2:6
Santiago De la FuenteATP #719Elo 1425clay 1434

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Saraiva Dos SantosLost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Saraiva Dos Santos: 7 matches in a row winning the first set; Saraiva Dos Santos won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, De la Fuente lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Saraiva Dos SantosLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    De la Fuente lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Saraiva Dos Santos 10 of 20, De la Fuente 8 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos62%
Santiago De la Fuente39%

Elo: P. Saraiva Dos Santos 63% · S. De la Fuente 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Saraiva Dos Santos40%
2:1 P. Saraiva Dos Santos22%
2:1 S. De la Fuente16%
2:0 S. De la Fuente22%

First set

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos59%
Santiago De la Fuente41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%26%76%
18.566%34%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.546%54%47%
22.541%59%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,797 matches

Games handicap

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos SantosSantiago De la Fuente
3Aces0
7Double faults2
57%First serves in74%
60%First-serve points won66%
53%Second-serve points won62%
1/5Break points converted3/11
7/10Service games held9/10
57%Service points won65%
35%Return points won43%
79Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. Saraiva Dos SantosTourS. De la Fuente
Service points won60%62%56%
Return points won40%38%42%
Service games held73%76%63%
Breaks of serve27%24%31%
Aces per service game0.350.11
Double faults per game0.300.17
Sets with a tie-break12%9%
Tie-breaks won5/135/7
Wins in straight sets63%50%
Matches in the sample4331

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

  • 29/09/26LMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#255Challenger Curitiba · R326:3 3:6 0:6
  • 28/09/26WGabriel SchenekenbergChallenger Curitiba · Q27:5 6:4
  • 27/09/26WAugusto ScheidtChallenger Curitiba · Q16:2 6:4
  • 26/08/26LAndres Martin#338Challenger Kingston 2 · R167:5 3:6 4:6
  • 25/08/26WAlex Hernandez#484Challenger Kingston 2 · R326:1 6:4
  • 18/08/26LGarrett Johns#441Challenger Kingston · R326:2 4:6 2:3
  • 17/08/26WMiguel Tobon#506Challenger Kingston · Q27:6 6:2
  • 16/08/26WMatt Kuhar#759Challenger Kingston · Q17:6 6:7 6:2
  • 26/06/26LMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#255Challenger Piracicaba · R163:6 6:4 2:6
  • 23/06/26WGustavo Ribeiro de Almeida#818Challenger Piracicaba · R327:5 6:3

Santiago De la Fuente

Elo over the last year

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos SantosSantiago De la Fuente

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. Saraiva Dos SantosS. De la Fuente
Hard court3–260%0–0
Clay16–2242%12–1939%

Head to head

P. Saraiva Dos Santos 0–1 S. De la Fuente

  • 16/06/26Winner: Santiago De la Fuente6:3 3:6 6:7