ATP Brussels250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Schwaerzler vs Cina 0:2: result and our tips

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Joel SchwaerzlerATP #173Elo 1724hard 1729
0:2final3:6 6:7(4)
Federico CinaATP #135Elo 1763hard 1742

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cina: 5 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoLost55%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 55%

    No tie-break in recent matches: Schwaerzler 12 of 20, Cina 16 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost44%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cina: 5 matches in a row over 24.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Joel Schwaerzler45%
Federico Cina55%

Elo: J. Schwaerzler 48% · F. Cina 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Schwaerzler26%
2:1 J. Schwaerzler20%
2:1 F. Cina21%
2:0 F. Cina34%

First set

Joel Schwaerzler46%
Federico Cina54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.547%53%39%
24.544%56%38%
25.541%59%34%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,532 matches

Games handicap

Federico Cina −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Joel SchwaerzlerFederico Cina
8Aces5
5Double faults1
55%First serves in69%
76%First-serve points won77%
39%Second-serve points won46%
1/5Break points converted3/8
8/11Service games held9/10
60%Service points won67%
33%Return points won41%
67Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. SchwaerzlerTourF. Cina
Service points won64%62%63%
Return points won36%38%39%
Service games held80%76%78%
Breaks of serve19%24%26%
Aces per service game0.480.39
Double faults per game0.250.22
Sets with a tie-break23%10%
Tie-breaks won23/355/17
Wins in straight sets50%64%
Matches in the sample6267

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Joel Schwaerzler

  • 08/10/26LJack Pinnington Jones#191Challenger Villena · R161:6 3:6
  • 06/10/26WFelix Balshaw#186Challenger Villena · R326:7 6:3 7:5
  • 03/10/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · SF4:6 2:6
  • 02/10/26WLucas Poullain#318Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · QF6:4 6:1
  • 01/10/26WHarry Wendelken#213Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R166:4 6:3
  • 29/09/26WAlberto Barroso Campos#710Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R326:3 7:5
  • 22/09/26LMaxime Chazal#418Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R326:2 4:6 6:7
  • 03/09/26LLuca Potenza#559Challenger Manacor · R162:6 2:6
  • 01/09/26WMax Basing#256Challenger Manacor · R326:3 6:7 6:4
  • 26/08/26LAndrea Guerrieri#166ATP US Open · Q26:3 4:6 1:6

Federico Cina

Elo over the last year

Joel SchwaerzlerFederico Cina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. SchwaerzlerF. Cina
Hard court20–1361%23–1462%
Clay14–1450%15–1354%
Grass0–10%1–150%

Head to head

J. Schwaerzler 0–1 F. Cina

  • 13/05/26Winner: Federico Cina4:6 1:6

See also