Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Round of 32hardbest of three sets
Smith vs Moriya 1:2: result and our tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Keegan Smith71%
Hiroki Moriya30%
Elo: K. Smith 69% · H. Moriya 31%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 K. Smith48%
2:1 K. Smith23%
2:1 H. Moriya13%
2:0 H. Moriya17%
First set
Keegan Smith65%
Hiroki Moriya35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no65%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 70% | 30% | 64% |
| 20.5 | 62% | 38% | 56% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% | 51% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 43% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 36% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 32% |
Sample: 4,540 matches
Games handicap
Keegan Smith −3.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes42%
tour average 34%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 22.5out · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
Match stats
| Keegan Smith | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aces | 1 |
| 2 | Double faults | 6 |
| 69% | First serves in | 66% |
| 64% | First-serve points won | 65% |
| 53% | Second-serve points won | 47% |
| 4/12 | Break points converted | 5/8 |
| 11/16 | Service games held | 10/14 |
| 60% | Service points won | 59% |
| 42% | Return points won | 40% |
| 97 | Total points won | 93 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Smith | Tour | H. Moriya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 18% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.60 | 0.23 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.30 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 26% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 22/43 | 7/23 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 58% | |
| Matches in the sample | 70 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Keegan Smith
- 02/10/26LMitchell Krueger#340Challenger Columbus · QF4:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WBryce Nakashima#576Challenger Columbus · R166:4 3:6 7:5
- 29/09/26WKaylan Bigun#580Challenger Columbus · R324:6 7:6 6:2
- 23/09/26LDylan Dietrich#264Challenger San Diego 2 · R162:6 6:7
- 21/09/26WEdward Winter#350Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:3 4:6 6:2
- 15/09/26LMitchell Krueger#340Challenger Tiburon · R326:7 7:6 4:6
- 24/08/26LAlexis Galarneau#184ATP US Open · Q16:7 3:6
- 17/08/26LSoonwoo Kwon#161Challenger Quebec City · Q16:4 3:6 3:6
- 25/07/26LLuka Pavlovic#207Challenger Segovia · SF2:6 6:7
- 24/07/26WPaul Inchauspe#597Challenger Segovia · QF6:7 7:6 7:6
Hiroki Moriya
- 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#422Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
- 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#462Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
- 11/09/26LYuta Shimizu#393Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 5:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WMaximus Jones#496Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:3 7:6
- 07/09/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R324:6 6:1 6:2
- 01/09/26LKasidit Samrej#397Challenger Zhangjiagang · R321:6 6:7
- 31/08/26WS D Prajwal Dev#670Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q26:1 6:1
- 30/08/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#865Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:1 6:3
- 28/07/26LJay Friend#260Challenger Vancouver · Q12:6 0:6
Elo over the last year
Keegan SmithHiroki Moriya
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Smith | H. Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–2357% | 22–2547% |
| Clay | 6–367% | 1–150% |
| Grass | 4–450% | 1–150% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.