Soto vs Heredia 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 61%
Heredia: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games
Other tips
- Match Winner: SotoWon79%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Heredia lost 7 of the last 10 matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Soto 76% · S. Heredia 24%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 73% | 27% | 76% |
| 18.5 | 63% | 37% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 55% | 45% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 51% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 43% | 57% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 37% | 63% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 34% | 66% | 36% |
Sample: 2,846 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 27%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.0out · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Matias Soto | Samuel Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aces | 4 |
| 7 | Double faults | 14 |
| 51% | First serves in | 57% |
| 74% | First-serve points won | 63% |
| 44% | Second-serve points won | 44% |
| 5/16 | Break points converted | 4/13 |
| 11/15 | Service games held | 10/15 |
| 59% | Service points won | 55% |
| 45% | Return points won | 41% |
| 123 | Total points won | 115 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Soto | Tour | S. Heredia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 59% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 72% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.42 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.35 | 0.44 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 8% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/12 | 5/6 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 77% | |
| Matches in the sample | 43 | 30 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Matias Soto
- 06/10/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#111Challenger Antofagasta · R323:6 4:6
- 29/09/26LLautaro Midon#189Challenger Curitiba · R323:6 3:6
- 11/09/26LVitaliy Sachko#175Challenger Tulln · QF3:6 6:1 2:6
- 09/09/26WMarvin Moeller#226Challenger Tulln · R166:4 3:6 6:0
- 07/09/26WSandro Kopp#308Challenger Tulln · R327:6 6:2
- 01/09/26LKilian Feldbausch#261Challenger Como · R323:6 2:6
- 26/08/26LMarvin Moeller#226Challenger Augsburg · R163:6 6:7
- 25/08/26WOleksii Krutykh#439Challenger Augsburg · R326:3 6:4
- 18/08/26LRudolf Molleker#522Challenger Prague · R323:6 3:6
- 12/07/26LNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Bogota · F1:6 5:7
Samuel Heredia
- 11/10/26LFederico ZeballosChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q14:6 6:3 3:6
- 06/10/26LEduardo Ribeiro#355Challenger Antofagasta · R323:6 4:6
- 30/09/26LJoao Eduardo Schiessl#612Challenger Curitiba · R324:6 5:7
- 28/09/26WJuan Sebastian Osorio#672Challenger Curitiba · Q27:6 5:7 6:4
- 27/09/26WLeonardo Storck FrancaChallenger Curitiba · Q13:6 6:3 6:1
- 18/08/26LLaslo Djere#136Challenger Cancun · Q13:6 4:6
- 20/07/26LMassimo Giunta#365Challenger Segovia · Q21:6 4:6
- 19/07/26WJohn Echeverria#523Challenger Segovia · Q16:4 7:6
- 12/07/26LIzan Almazan Valiente#409Challenger Pozoblanco · Q16:1 4:6 1:6
- 07/07/26LLorenzo Claverie#875Challenger Bogota · R326:7 7:6 1:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Soto | S. Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–20% | 2–433% |
| Clay | 23–1856% | 11–1346% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.