WTA 125 SuzhouRound of 16hardbest of three sets

Sramkova vs Liu 2:0: result and our tips

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Rebecca SramkovaWTA #134Elo 1679hard 1667
2:0final7:5 6:4
Claire LiuWTA #96Elo 1779hard 1753

Our tips

Our tip
Liu to winLost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Liu won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Rebecca Sramkova34%
Claire Liu66%

Elo: R. Sramkova 38% · C. Liu 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Sramkova21%
2:1 R. Sramkova14%
2:1 C. Liu22%
2:0 C. Liu43%

First set

Rebecca Sramkova39%
Claire Liu61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%70%
18.567%33%60%
19.559%42%52%
20.551%49%46%
21.546%54%41%
22.541%59%37%
23.537%63%33%

Sample: 2,140 matches

Games handicap

Claire Liu −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 21%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Rebecca SramkovaClaire Liu
1Aces5
4Double faults4
58%First serves in62%
68%First-serve points won56%
66%Second-serve points won55%
4/7Break points converted2/6
9/11Service games held7/11
67%Service points won56%
44%Return points won33%
80Total points won66

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. SramkovaTourC. Liu
Service points won57%56%57%
Return points won43%44%46%
Service games held68%63%68%
Breaks of serve34%37%41%
Aces per service game0.380.29
Double faults per game0.280.26
Sets with a tie-break5%8%
Tie-breaks won2/63/9
Wins in straight sets71%66%
Matches in the sample4946

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rebecca Sramkova

Claire Liu

Elo over the last year

Rebecca SramkovaClaire Liu

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. SramkovaC. Liu
Hard court17–1849%17–1063%
Clay6–650%7–558%
Grass1–150%5–271%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Rebecca Sramkova

Claire Liu