ATP Brussels250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Struff vs Giron 2:0: result and our tips

·

Jan-Lennard StruffATP #58Elo 1900hard 1839
2:0final7:6(3) 7:6(3)
Marcos GironATP #88Elo 1812hard 1785

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won70%

Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 70%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Struff 11 of 20, Giron 18 of 20 (tour average 60%); Giron: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 33% → with the players' profiles 37%

Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Struff 7 of 20, Giron 10 of 20 (tour average 30%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jan-Lennard Struff60%
Marcos Giron40%

Elo: J.-L. Struff 58% · M. Giron 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J.-L. Struff37%
2:1 J.-L. Struff21%
2:1 M. Giron18%
2:0 M. Giron23%

First set

Jan-Lennard Struff57%
Marcos Giron43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.548%52%40%
24.543%57%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,874 matches

Games handicap

Jan-Lennard Struff −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jan-Lennard StruffMarcos Giron
15Aces8
2Double faults2
78%First serves in56%
81%First-serve points won62%
73%Second-serve points won63%
1/9Break points converted1/2
11/12Service games held11/12
79%Service points won62%
38%Return points won21%
89Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J.-L. StruffTourM. Giron
Service points won65%62%64%
Return points won35%38%36%
Service games held81%76%80%
Breaks of serve19%24%21%
Aces per service game0.720.40
Double faults per game0.250.15
Sets with a tie-break21%23%
Tie-breaks won17/3015/34
Wins in straight sets58%56%
Matches in the sample5255

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Marcos Giron

Elo over the last year

Jan-Lennard StruffMarcos Giron

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J.-L. StruffM. Giron
Hard court16–1650%17–1849%
Clay4–736%3–633%
Grass6–367%5–645%

Head to head

J.-L. Struff 1–1 M. Giron

  • 06/06/22Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff7:5 5:7 7:6
  • 16/06/21Winner: Marcos Giron7:6 3:6 4:6