ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

TE vs Simakin 0:2: result and our tips

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Rigele TEATP #849Elo 1383hard 1384
0:2final3:6 2:6
Ilia SimakinATP #154Elo 1873hard 1895

Our tips

Our tip
Simakin to win 2-0Won64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

TE lost 0-2 in 4 of the last 7 matches, Simakin won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Long shot
A tie-breakLost32%

Where the number comes from: market alone 28% → with the players' profiles 32%

A tie-break in recent matches: TE 4 of 7, Simakin 9 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Rigele TE16%
Ilia Simakin85%

Elo: R. TE 5% · I. Simakin 95%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. TE8%
2:1 R. TE8%
2:1 I. Simakin20%
2:0 I. Simakin64%

First set

Rigele TE23%
Ilia Simakin77%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes28%
no72%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.578%22%81%
18.569%31%72%
19.560%41%64%
20.551%50%56%
21.544%56%51%
22.537%63%43%
23.531%69%37%

Sample: 2,183 matches

Games handicap

Ilia Simakin −4.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 34%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Rigele TEIlia Simakin
2Aces6
2Double faults2
60%First serves in70%
61%First-serve points won75%
43%Second-serve points won59%
0/3Break points converted3/6
5/8Service games held9/9
54%Service points won70%
30%Return points won46%
45Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. TETourI. Simakin
Service points won60%62%65%
Return points won33%38%39%
Service games held73%76%80%
Breaks of serve17%24%27%
Aces per service game0.640.54
Double faults per game0.260.24
Sets with a tie-break26%18%
Tie-breaks won1/517/30
Wins in straight sets0%44%
Matches in the sample765

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rigele TE

  • 05/10/26WAdam Walton#98ATP Shanghai · Q15:7 6:3 6:4
  • 28/09/26LArthur Gea#56ATP Beijing · Q12:6 3:6
  • 22/09/26LBernard Tomic#185ATP Hangzhou · Q17:6 4:6 5:7
  • 07/09/26LRio Noguchi#221Challenger Shanghai · R326:7 2:6
  • 04/05/26LDane Sweeny#112Challenger Wuxi · R320:6 6:7
  • 29/04/26LTung-Lin Wu#364Challenger Jiujiang · R324:6 1:6
  • 21/10/25LAoran Wang#989Challenger Suzhou · R326:4 6:7 2:6
  • 13/10/25LHyeon Chung#558Challenger Shenzhen · R326:7 0:3
  • 29/09/25LUgo Blanchet#305ATP Shanghai · Q14:6 3:6
  • 24/09/25LMackenzie McDonald#169Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 4:6

Ilia Simakin

  • 05/10/26WLuka Pavlovic#207ATP Shanghai · Q14:6 6:4 6:1
  • 20/09/26WRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#266Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · F6:7 6:4 6:3
  • 19/09/26WHunter Heck#605Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · SF6:7 7:5 6:2
  • 18/09/26WCruz Hewitt#331Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · QF6:3 6:1
  • 17/09/26WBlake Ellis#462Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:4 6:2
  • 15/09/26WTimofei Derepasko#662Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:4 6:3
  • 13/09/26WArthur Weber#409Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · F6:4 7:6
  • 12/09/26WMax Purcell#685Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF6:3 2:6 6:2
  • 11/09/26WPhilip Sekulic#363Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF6:4 6:3
  • 10/09/26WEnzo Aguiard#439Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:2 6:0

Elo over the last year

Rigele TEIlia Simakin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. TEI. Simakin
Hard court1–614%42–1278%
Clay0–10%3–827%

Head to head

R. TE 0–1 I. Simakin

  • 06/05/25Winner: Ilia Simakin5:7 3:3

Road through the tournament

Rigele TE

Ilia Simakin