ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Tirante vs Jodar 1:2: result and our tips

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Thiago Agustin TiranteATP #54Elo 1979hard 1916
1:2final6:4 2:6 3:6
Rafael JodarATP #13Elo 2117hard 2049

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Thiago Agustin Tirante30%
Rafael Jodar70%

Elo: T. Tirante 32% · R. Jodar 68%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Tirante18%
2:1 T. Tirante13%
2:1 R. Jodar23%
2:0 R. Jodar46%

First set

Thiago Agustin Tirante35%
Rafael Jodar65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 50%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%68%
20.564%36%59%
21.557%43%54%
22.550%50%45%
23.542%58%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,688 matches

Games handicap

Rafael Jodar −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Thiago Agustin TiranteRafael Jodar
5Aces4
2Double faults3
57%First serves in63%
87%First-serve points won68%
46%Second-serve points won61%
1/10Break points converted3/6
10/13Service games held13/14
69%Service points won66%
34%Return points won31%
78Total points won83

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. TiranteTourR. Jodar
Service points won66%62%65%
Return points won36%38%41%
Service games held82%76%81%
Breaks of serve20%24%30%
Aces per service game0.670.38
Double faults per game0.220.17
Sets with a tie-break16%11%
Tie-breaks won12/2411/23
Wins in straight sets54%66%
Matches in the sample5981

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rafael Jodar

Elo over the last year

Thiago Agustin TiranteRafael Jodar

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. TiranteR. Jodar
Hard court16–1355%41–1475%
Clay18–967%19–483%
Grass1–233%2–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rafael Jodar

First match in this tournament.