Challenger AntofagastaChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Tobon vs Cigarran 2:1: result and our tips

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Miguel TobonATP #506Elo 1528clay 1532
2:1final4:6 6:4 6:1
Thiago CigarranATP #622Elo 1499clay 1505

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Miguel Tobon78%
Thiago Cigarran22%

Elo: M. Tobon 54% · T. Cigarran 46%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Tobon55%
2:1 M. Tobon23%
2:1 T. Cigarran11%
2:0 T. Cigarran12%

First set

Miguel Tobon71%
Thiago Cigarran29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%77%
18.563%38%69%
19.554%46%60%
20.548%52%53%
21.542%58%48%
22.537%63%41%
23.534%66%37%

Sample: 2,680 matches

Games handicap

Miguel Tobon −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 28%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.0in · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Miguel TobonThiago Cigarran
3Aces4
8Double faults5
58%First serves in54%
72%First-serve points won71%
46%Second-serve points won37%
5/7Break points converted3/8
11/14Service games held8/13
61%Service points won55%
45%Return points won39%
86Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. TobonTourT. Cigarran
Service points won61%62%58%
Return points won38%38%41%
Service games held75%76%68%
Breaks of serve26%24%31%
Aces per service game0.360.21
Double faults per game0.330.27
Sets with a tie-break19%10%
Tie-breaks won10/243/9
Wins in straight sets63%58%
Matches in the sample5238

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Miguel Tobon

  • 29/09/26LJuan Bautista Torres#279Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 6:3 1:6
  • 10/09/26LEdas Butvilas#199Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 1:6
  • 08/09/26WKoray KirciChallenger Istanbul 3 · R326:3 6:3
  • 27/08/26LRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#266Challenger Kingston 2 · QF2:6 4:6
  • 26/08/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#366Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:3 6:1
  • 25/08/26WPietro Orlando Fellin#628Challenger Kingston 2 · R326:2 6:1
  • 17/08/26LPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos#436Challenger Kingston · Q26:7 2:6
  • 16/08/26WLorenzo Claverie#889Challenger Kingston · Q16:7 6:2 7:6
  • 26/07/26LBernard Tomic#185ATP Los Cabos · R167:5 4:6 6:7
  • 20/07/26LMario Gonzalez Fernandez#648Challenger Segovia · R327:6 3:6 6:7

Thiago Cigarran

  • 05/10/26WNicolas Kicker#351Challenger Antofagasta · Q26:3 3:0
  • 04/10/26WAnders MattaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:2
  • 21/09/26LTomas Martinez#790Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q21:6 0:4
  • 20/09/26WSantiago PesinoChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q16:4 7:5
  • 06/09/26LTiago Pereira#339Challenger Seville · Q13:6 6:2 6:7
  • 18/08/26LLorenzo Giustino#216Challenger Sion · R324:6 3:6
  • 17/08/26WLuca Wiedenmann#537Challenger Sion · Q22:6 6:4 6:3
  • 16/08/26WMichael Zhu#957Challenger Sion · Q14:6 7:5 6:2
  • 25/06/26LSantiago Rodriguez Taverna#460Challenger Piracicaba · R326:7 6:3 2:6
  • 22/06/26LLucas Andrade Da Silva#771Challenger Piracicaba · Q24:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Miguel TobonThiago Cigarran

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. TobonT. Cigarran
Hard court9–950%0–0
Clay15–1944%19–1950%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Miguel Tobon

First match in this tournament.

Thiago Cigarran

  • 04/10/26WAnders MattaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:2
  • 05/10/26WNicolas Kicker#351Challenger Antofagasta · Q26:3 3:0

See also