Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Trufelli vs Boogaard 1:2: result and our tips

·

Timeo TrufelliElo 1465hard 1463
1:2final7:5 3:6 4:6
Thijs BoogaardATP #487Elo 1555hard 1504

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Timeo Trufelli25%
Thijs Boogaard75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Trufelli14%
2:1 T. Trufelli11%
2:1 T. Boogaard22%
2:0 T. Boogaard53%

First set

Timeo Trufelli31%
Thijs Boogaard69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 54%market (no margin): 53%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.554%46%54%
21.548%52%49%
22.542%58%42%
23.536%64%37%
24.534%66%35%

Sample: 3,822 matches

Games handicap

Thijs Boogaard −4.544%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Timeo TrufelliThijs Boogaard
6Aces6
3Double faults4
48%First serves in56%
79%First-serve points won83%
45%Second-serve points won57%
3/5Break points converted4/8
11/15Service games held13/16
61%Service points won71%
29%Return points won39%
84Total points won98

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. TrufelliTourT. Boogaard
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held76%76%73%
Breaks of serve21%24%23%
Aces per service game0.420.40
Double faults per game0.280.30
Sets with a tie-break14%15%
Tie-breaks won0/13/5
Wins in straight sets0%33%
Matches in the sample313

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Timeo Trufelli

  • 01/03/26LJelle Sels#579Challenger Thionville · Q14:6 6:7
  • 23/02/26LAntoine Ghibaudo#403Challenger St. Brieuc · Q24:6 4:6
  • 22/02/26WEero Vasa#445Challenger St. Brieuc · Q16:3 3:6 6:3

Thijs Boogaard

  • 04/10/26LPhilip Henning#267Challenger Villena · Q12:6 7:6 3:6
  • 27/09/26LAlberto Barroso Campos#681Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q12:6 2:6
  • 17/07/26LJan Kumstat#191Challenger Bunschoten · QF1:6 1:6
  • 16/07/26WGerard Campana Lee#449Challenger Bunschoten · R166:0 4:6 4:2
  • 14/07/26WGauthier Onclin#168Challenger Bunschoten · R323:6 7:6 6:4
  • 11/06/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP S-Hertogenbosch · R163:6 6:4 6:7
  • 10/06/26WYibing Wu#113ATP S-Hertogenbosch · R326:3 2:6 6:4
  • 11/02/26LStan Wawrinka#142ATP Rotterdam · R323:6 4:6
  • 08/02/26LHugo Grenier#269ATP Rotterdam · Q26:2 6:7 4:6
  • 07/02/26WKimmer Coppejans#232ATP Rotterdam · Q13:6 7:6 6:2

Elo over the last year

Timeo TrufelliThijs Boogaard

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. TrufelliT. Boogaard
Hard court1–233%3–538%
Clay0–02–167%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.