WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Valentova vs Zhang 2:1: result and our tips

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Tereza ValentovaWTA #88Elo 1867hard 1857
2:1final6:2 1:6 6:4
Shuai ZhangWTA #85Elo 1734hard 1716

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Valentova 16 of 20, Zhang 17 of 20 (tour average 68%); Zhang: 9 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Valentova 15 of 20, Zhang 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

  • Match Winner: ValentovaWon70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zhang lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zhang: 3 matches in a row under 18.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tereza Valentova70%
Shuai Zhang30%

Elo: T. Valentova 69% · S. Zhang 31%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Valentova47%
2:1 T. Valentova21%
2:1 S. Zhang14%
2:0 S. Zhang17%

First set

Tereza Valentova66%
Shuai Zhang34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%72%
18.567%33%64%
19.559%41%56%
20.552%48%49%
21.546%54%44%
22.540%60%38%
23.536%64%34%

Sample: 1,956 matches

Games handicap

Tereza Valentova −3.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tereza ValentovaShuai Zhang
6Aces2
4Double faults2
52%First serves in70%
68%First-serve points won60%
45%Second-serve points won44%
6/12Break points converted5/11
7/12Service games held7/13
57%Service points won55%
45%Return points won43%
79Total points won76

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. ValentovaTourS. Zhang
Service points won55%56%57%
Return points won46%44%42%
Service games held64%63%65%
Breaks of serve41%37%33%
Aces per service game0.210.18
Double faults per game0.390.25
Sets with a tie-break14%5%
Tie-breaks won7/146/7
Wins in straight sets65%63%
Matches in the sample4558

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tereza Valentova

  • 29/08/26LKatie Volynets#73WTA 125 Philadelphia · F3:6 5:7
  • 28/08/26WJulia Grabher#102WTA 125 Philadelphia · SF6:3 6:1
  • 27/08/26WKylie Collins#323WTA 125 Philadelphia · QF6:1 6:2
  • 26/08/26WFangran Tian#249WTA 125 Philadelphia · R166:3 6:1
  • 24/08/26WAriana Arseneault#352WTA 125 Philadelphia · R327:6 6:1
  • 17/08/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Cincinnati · R646:3 6:7 0:6
  • 14/08/26WMary Stoiana#114WTA Cincinnati · R1286:2 7:6
  • 03/08/26LTaylor Townsend#89WTA Toronto · R1284:6 5:7
  • 25/07/26LDaria Snigur#40WTA Prague · SF6:7 3:6
  • 24/07/26WMarie Bouzková#26WTA Prague · QF2:6 6:4 7:6

Shuai Zhang

Elo over the last year

Tereza ValentovaShuai Zhang

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. ValentovaS. Zhang
Hard court19–1261%17–1849%
Clay5–456%5–936%
Grass2–340%5–456%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also