Challenger Fort WorthChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Vandecasteele vs Antonius 1:2: result and our tips

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Quinn VandecasteeleATP #473Elo 1535hard 1538
1:2final6:4 2:6 3:6
Michael AntoniusATP #632Elo 1496hard 1501

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Quinn Vandecasteele50%
Michael Antonius50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Q. Vandecasteele31%
2:1 Q. Vandecasteele19%
2:1 M. Antonius19%
2:0 M. Antonius31%

First set

Quinn Vandecasteele50%
Michael Antonius50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 53%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%59%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,156 matches

Games handicap

Michael Antonius −0.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Quinn VandecasteeleMichael Antonius
3Aces0
5Double faults2
52%First serves in65%
65%First-serve points won62%
44%Second-serve points won67%
3/6Break points converted5/9
8/13Service games held11/14
55%Service points won64%
37%Return points won45%
76Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Q. VandecasteeleTourM. Antonius
Service points won61%62%61%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held74%76%76%
Breaks of serve28%24%23%
Aces per service game0.490.24
Double faults per game0.310.24
Sets with a tie-break14%30%
Tie-breaks won8/182/3
Wins in straight sets75%100%
Matches in the sample554

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Quinn Vandecasteele

  • 28/09/26LDaniil Ostapenkov#529Challenger Columbus · Q22:6 6:7
  • 27/09/26WPreston StearnsChallenger Columbus · Q16:2 4:6 6:2
  • 20/09/26LDaniil Ostapenkov#529Challenger San Diego 2 · Q15:7 6:4 3:6
  • 14/09/26LBryce Nakashima#576Challenger Tiburon · Q22:6 4:6
  • 13/09/26WNoah Zamora#780Challenger Tiburon · Q16:1 7:5
  • 24/08/26LJames Duckworth#64ATP Winston Salem · R642:6 1:6
  • 23/08/26WPierre-Hugues Herbert#296ATP Winston Salem · Q23:6 7:6 7:5
  • 22/08/26WLi Tu#527ATP Winston Salem · Q16:3 6:2
  • 13/08/26LTristan Schoolkate#155Challenger Brownsburg · R166:2 2:6 4:6
  • 13/08/26WAbdullah Shelbayh#291Challenger Brownsburg · R326:4 6:3

Michael Antonius

  • 27/09/26LKeaton Hance#776Challenger Columbus · Q14:6 7:6 3:6
  • 26/08/26LKei NishikoriATP US Open · Q24:6 4:6
  • 25/08/26WHenry Searle#228ATP US Open · Q16:1 6:2
  • 21/04/26LMitchell Krueger#340Challenger Savannah · R327:6 6:7 4:6

Elo over the last year

Quinn VandecasteeleMichael Antonius

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Q. VandecasteeleM. Antonius
Hard court23–2152%1–233%
Clay2–340%0–10%
Grass3–350%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.