WTA 125 MallorcaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Vedder vs Curmi 1:2: result and our tips

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Eva VedderWTA #176Elo 1458clay 1462
1:2final6:4 5:7 0:6
Francesca CurmiWTA #233Elo 1624clay 1619

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Vedder 16 of 20, Curmi 8 of 9 (tour average 67%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Vedder 16 of 20, Curmi 7 of 9 (tour average 67%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Curmi 2-0Lost36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Vedder lost 0-2 in 11 of the last 20 matches, Curmi won 2-0 in 4 of the last 9 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Eva Vedder39%
Francesca Curmi61%

Elo: E. Vedder 29% · F. Curmi 71%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Vedder25%
2:1 E. Vedder17%
2:1 F. Curmi22%
2:0 F. Curmi36%

First set

Eva Vedder46%
Francesca Curmi54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%47%45%
21.549%51%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,498 matches

Games handicap

Francesca Curmi −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 28 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Eva VedderFrancesca Curmi
1Aces2
4Double faults2
63%First serves in70%
50%First-serve points won59%
38%Second-serve points won52%
5/12Break points converted8/14
6/14Service games held9/14
46%Service points won57%
43%Return points won54%
78Total points won99

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. VedderTourF. Curmi
Service points won53%56%55%
Return points won43%44%44%
Service games held57%63%64%
Breaks of serve33%37%38%
Aces per service game0.160.12
Double faults per game0.290.23
Sets with a tie-break6%10%
Tie-breaks won0/31/2
Wins in straight sets71%80%
Matches in the sample219

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Eva Vedder

  • 15/09/26LJennifer Ruggeri#252WTA 125 Valencia · R327:5 6:7 1:6
  • 10/09/26LMaria Carle#238WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R161:6 2:6
  • 08/09/26WSamira de Stefano#185WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R326:2 6:4
  • 25/08/26LBianca Andreescu#168WTA US Open · Q11:6 2:6
  • 20/07/26LMona Barthel#180WTA Hamburg · Q26:4 3:6 0:6
  • 19/07/26WGeorgina Garcia Perez#703WTA Hamburg · Q14:6 6:2 6:4
  • 16/07/26LNuria Brancaccio#232WTA 125 Rome · R161:6 2:6
  • 14/07/26WFrancesca Pace#274WTA 125 Rome · R326:4 6:4
  • 29/03/26LPolina Kudermetova#102WTA Charleston · Q23:6 2:6
  • 28/03/26WAoi Ito#344WTA Charleston · Q16:2 6:1

Francesca Curmi

  • 16/09/26LJoelle Lilly Sophie Steur#283WTA 125 Valencia · R167:6 3:6 4:6
  • 14/09/26WVeronika Erjavec#144WTA 125 Valencia · R326:1 2:6 6:2
  • 07/09/26LNuria Brancaccio#232WTA 125 Montreux · R324:6 5:7
  • 10/07/26LJeline Vandromme#123WTA 125 Contrexeville · QF3:6 0:6
  • 08/07/26WRebeka Masarova#171WTA 125 Contrexeville · R166:4 6:4
  • 06/07/26WOceane Dodin#307WTA 125 Contrexeville · R326:4 6:3
  • 21/04/26LAlisa Oktiabreva#311WTA 125 Oeiras 4 · R326:7 3:6
  • 20/04/26WElena Ruxandra Bertea#321WTA 125 Oeiras 4 · Q26:2 6:1
  • 19/04/26WClaire Liu#96WTA 125 Oeiras 4 · Q16:4 7:5
  • 16/09/25LTatiana Pieri#484WTA 125 Tolentino · R326:2 3:6 1:4

Elo over the last year

Eva VedderFrancesca Curmi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. VedderF. Curmi
Hard court1–325%0–0
Clay6–1135%5–456%

Head to head

They have not met yet.