WTA OsakaWTA 250Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Watson vs Jones 0:2: result and our tips

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Heather WatsonWTA #384Elo 1612hard 1586
0:2final3:6 3:6
Emerson JonesWTA #134Elo 1626hard 1627

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Watson: 8 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Watson 9 of 18, Jones 11 of 20 (tour average 38%); Watson: 3 matches in a row over 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Heather Watson26%
Emerson Jones74%

Elo: H. Watson 44% · E. Jones 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Watson15%
2:1 H. Watson13%
2:1 E. Jones21%
2:0 E. Jones51%

First set

Heather Watson32%
Emerson Jones69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.0 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%72%
18.566%35%64%
19.557%43%56%
20.550%50%49%
21.545%55%44%
22.539%61%38%
23.535%66%34%

Sample: 1,734 matches

Games handicap

Emerson Jones −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.0out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Heather WatsonEmerson Jones
3Aces2
0Double faults3
34%First serves in65%
77%First-serve points won71%
39%Second-serve points won63%
1/4Break points converted4/6
5/9Service games held8/9
52%Service points won69%
32%Return points won48%
43Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. WatsonTourE. Jones
Service points won57%56%55%
Return points won43%44%44%
Service games held67%63%62%
Breaks of serve35%37%35%
Aces per service game0.350.14
Double faults per game0.500.41
Sets with a tie-break7%15%
Tie-breaks won3/37/11
Wins in straight sets60%62%
Matches in the sample1830

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Heather Watson

Emerson Jones

  • 08/10/26LZhuoxuan Bai#203WTA 125 Suzhou · R166:1 3:6 6:7
  • 06/10/26WMai Hontama#168WTA 125 Suzhou · R326:4 6:0
  • 03/10/26LAlexandra Shubladze#136WTA 125 Jingshan · SF5:7 4:6
  • 02/10/26WKyoka Okamura#246WTA 125 Jingshan · QF7:6 7:6
  • 30/09/26WChenting Zhu#593WTA 125 Jingshan · R166:1 6:4
  • 28/09/26WHaruka Kaji#286WTA 125 Jingshan · R326:2 6:4
  • 22/09/26LYexin Ma#200WTA Seoul · R326:3 0:6 2:6
  • 25/08/26LSuzan Lamens#245WTA US Open · Q15:7 7:6 2:6
  • 11/08/26LLanlana Tararudee#53WTA Cincinnati · Q15:7 5:7
  • 03/08/26LLanlana Tararudee#53WTA Toronto · R1286:7 2:6

Elo over the last year

Heather WatsonEmerson Jones

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. WatsonE. Jones
Hard court7–558%12–1348%
Clay0–00–10%
Grass3–350%1–325%

Head to head

They have not met yet.