Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Weber vs Palan 1:2: result and our tips

Sunday 18 October · 04:00

Arthur WeberATP #409Elo 1500hard 1501

1:2final7:6(6) 6:7(2) 4:6

Dominik PalanATP #631Elo 1423hard 1432

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 18 October 2026, 00:40. A published tip never changes.

Our tip

Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Weber: 13 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Weber 18 of 20, Palan 13 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

Total Games: Under 22.5Lost62%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Weber 17 of 20, Palan 12 of 20 (tour average 58%)

Long shot

Total Games: Under 20.5Lost49%

Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 49%

Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Weber 14 of 20, Palan 9 of 20 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Weber77%

Dominik Palan23%

Elo: A. Weber 60% · D. Palan 40%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Weber56%

2:1 A. Weber22%

2:1 D. Palan10%

2:0 D. Palan13%

First set

Arthur Weber71%

Dominik Palan29%

Full distance (3rd set)

yes32%

no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games

Line	Over	Under	Tour over
18.5	72%	28%	71%
19.5	63%	37%	62%
20.5	54%	46%	54%
21.5	47%	53%	49%
22.5	41%	59%	42%
23.5	35%	65%	37%
24.5	33%	67%	35%

Sample: 3,411 matches

Games handicap

Arthur Weber −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Favouritefavourite lost
Most likely set scorewas 1:2
Total games Under 21.5out · 36 games
Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Arthur Weber		Dominik Palan
6	Aces	20
2	Double faults	3
72%	First serves in	68%
78%	First-serve points won	72%
70%	Second-serve points won	69%
0/3	Break points converted	1/2
16/17	Service games held	17/17
76%	Service points won	71%
29%	Return points won	25%
109	Total points won	111

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

	A. Weber	Tour	D. Palan
Service points won	60%	62%	63%
Return points won	38%	38%	35%
Service games held	72%	76%	79%
Breaks of serve	26%	24%	17%
Aces per service game	0.24		0.63
Double faults per game	0.17		0.47
Sets with a tie-break	14%		13%
Tie-breaks won	4/7		4/9
Wins in straight sets	80%		67%
Matches in the sample	24		30

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Weber

29/09/26LYanki Erel#300Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 2:6
22/09/26LHayato Matsuoka#247ATP Hangzhou · Q14:6 5:7
16/09/26LRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#266Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R164:6 2:6
15/09/26WKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:1 6:2
13/09/26LIlia Simakin#154Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · F4:6 6:7
12/09/26WYuta Shimizu#393Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF6:4 6:4
11/09/26WFilip Peliwo#661Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:6 6:2
10/09/26WTai Leonard Sach#510Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:0 6:0
08/09/26WTran Quoc CuongChallenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:0 6:0
04/08/26LFlorent Bax#302Challenger Istanbul 2 · R323:6 4:6

Dominik Palan

06/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#550Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:7 4:6
28/09/26LTerence Atmane#99Challenger Jingshan · Q11:6 4:6
15/09/26LMartin Borisiouk#869Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R327:5 2:6 5:7
07/09/26LHiroki Moriya#505Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:4 1:6 2:6
31/08/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q21:6 4:6
30/08/26WJi Sung Nam#827Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:4 6:3
10/08/26LSemen Pankin#432Challenger Astana · R321:6 4:6
23/07/26LYanki Erel#300Challenger Segovia · R166:3 6:7 2:6
21/07/26WMax Basing#248Challenger Segovia · R323:6 6:3 6:4
20/07/26WMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Segovia · Q26:7 6:4 7:5

Elo over the last year

Arthur WeberDominik Palan

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

	A. Weber	D. Palan
Hard court	10–1343%	12–1643%
Clay	0–10%	0–20%

Head to head

A. Weber 0–1 D. Palan

05/02/24Winner: Dominik Palan1:6 4:6