WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets

Zaar vs Jorge 0:2: result and our tips

·

Lisa ZaarWTA #293Elo 1419clay 1414
0:2final1:6 5:7
Matilde JorgeWTA #245Elo 1570clay 1520

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Won75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Zaar 10 of 11, Jorge 12 of 14 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lisa Zaar68%
Matilde Jorge32%

Elo: L. Zaar 35% · M. Jorge 65%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Zaar41%
2:1 L. Zaar23%
2:1 M. Jorge16%
2:0 M. Jorge20%

First set

Lisa Zaar59%
Matilde Jorge41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%47%46%
21.548%52%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.538%62%33%
24.535%65%31%

Sample: 1,377 matches

Games handicap

Lisa Zaar −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Lisa ZaarMatilde Jorge
0Aces3
3Double faults6
80%First serves in62%
52%First-serve points won66%
23%Second-serve points won52%
2/7Break points converted6/11
4/10Service games held7/9
46%Service points won61%
39%Return points won54%
56Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. ZaarTourM. Jorge
Service points won53%56%54%
Return points won47%44%45%
Service games held57%63%55%
Breaks of serve43%37%40%
Aces per service game0.060.12
Double faults per game0.270.37
Sets with a tie-break15%9%
Tie-breaks won1/42/3
Wins in straight sets75%43%
Matches in the sample1115

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lisa Zaar

Matilde Jorge

Elo over the last year

Lisa ZaarMatilde Jorge

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. ZaarM. Jorge
Hard court0–06–555%
Clay4–736%1–325%

Head to head

They have not met yet.