Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Zeng vs Zhu 1:2: result and our tips

·

Yaojie ZengATP #967Elo 1287hard 1291
1:2final1:6 6:1 3:6
Evan ZhuATP #462Elo 1612hard 1611

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: ZhuWon71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zeng lost the first set in 6 of the last 7 matches, Zhu won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: ZhuWon77%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 77%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zeng lost 6 of the last 7 matches

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost57%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 57%

    Zeng: 4 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Yaojie Zeng23%
Evan Zhu77%

Elo: Y. Zeng 14% · E. Zhu 86%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Y. Zeng13%
2:1 Y. Zeng10%
2:1 E. Zhu22%
2:0 E. Zhu56%

First set

Yaojie Zeng29%
Evan Zhu71%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.565%35%62%
20.556%44%54%
21.549%51%49%
22.543%57%42%
23.537%63%37%
24.533%67%35%

Sample: 3,411 matches

Games handicap

Evan Zhu −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Yaojie ZengEvan Zhu
8Aces5
5Double faults3
64%First serves in69%
68%First-serve points won59%
44%Second-serve points won62%
3/10Break points converted4/6
7/11Service games held9/12
59%Service points won60%
40%Return points won41%
74Total points won81

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Y. ZengTourE. Zhu
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won33%38%39%
Service games held76%76%78%
Breaks of serve16%24%26%
Aces per service game0.530.31
Double faults per game0.170.26
Sets with a tie-break31%16%
Tie-breaks won2/58/17
Wins in straight sets100%60%
Matches in the sample743

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Yaojie Zeng

  • 29/09/26LMichael Zheng#101Challenger Jingshan · R326:7 1:6
  • 14/09/26LAkira Santillan#309Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R325:7 3:6
  • 07/09/26LOmar Jasika#388Challenger Shanghai · Q26:7 3:6
  • 06/09/26WAoran WangChallenger Shanghai · Q16:3 7:6
  • 03/05/26LOgnjen Milic#363Challenger Wuxi · Q14:6 7:5 1:6
  • 26/04/26LOmar Jasika#388Challenger Jiujiang · Q13:6 6:7
  • 15/04/26LLeo Vithoontien#738Challenger Wuning 2 · R324:6 7:6 1:6
  • 12/10/25LSidharth Rawat#671Challenger Shenzhen · Q12:6 2:6
  • 22/09/25LDenis Yevseyev#470Challenger Jingshan · Q14:6 2:6
  • 07/09/25LYuta Kikuchi#900Challenger Guangzhou 2 · Q13:6 6:7

Evan Zhu

  • 08/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#361Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:7 6:7
  • 06/10/26WKoki Matsuda#475Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 6:3
  • 01/10/26LAlex Bolt#174Challenger Jingshan · R167:6 4:6 2:6
  • 30/09/26WHanyi Liu#822Challenger Jingshan · R326:3 6:4
  • 29/09/26WAleksandar Vukic#116Challenger Jingshan · Q26:3 4:2
  • 28/09/26WZhiheng XiaChallenger Jingshan · Q16:1 6:0
  • 22/09/26LHenry Searle#220Challenger San Diego 2 · R323:6 7:6 3:6
  • 21/09/26WAlafia Ayeni#434Challenger San Diego 2 · Q26:2 6:4
  • 20/09/26WAleksi LofmanChallenger San Diego 2 · Q16:1 7:5
  • 15/09/26LMichael Zheng#101Challenger Tiburon · R321:6 6:4 5:7

Elo over the last year

Yaojie ZengEvan Zhu

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Y. ZengE. Zhu
Hard court1–517%25–1760%
Clay0–10%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.