Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Zhang vs Uchida 2:0: result and our tips

·

Zhizhen ZhangATP #170Elo 1747hard 1699
2:0final7:6(1) 6:3
Kaichi UchidaATP #417Elo 1437hard 1441

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Zhang 2-0Won70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zhang won 2-0 in 6 of the last 20 matches, Uchida lost 0-2 in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won65%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 65%

    Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Zhang 18 of 20, Uchida 14 of 20 (tour average 71%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Zhizhen Zhang89%
Kaichi Uchida11%

Elo: Z. Zhang 82% · K. Uchida 19%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Z. Zhang70%
2:1 Z. Zhang18%
2:1 K. Uchida6%
2:0 K. Uchida6%

First set

Zhizhen Zhang81%
Kaichi Uchida19%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes24%
no76%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%79%
18.565%35%71%
19.556%44%62%
20.547%53%54%
21.540%60%49%
22.534%66%42%
23.528%72%37%

Sample: 1,666 matches

Games handicap

Zhizhen Zhang −5.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Zhizhen ZhangKaichi Uchida
11Aces7
2Double faults1
77%First serves in49%
84%First-serve points won68%
62%Second-serve points won58%
2/6Break points converted0/0
10/10Service games held9/11
79%Service points won63%
37%Return points won21%
71Total points won56

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Z. ZhangTourK. Uchida
Service points won64%62%63%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held81%76%76%
Breaks of serve17%24%18%
Aces per service game0.680.58
Double faults per game0.170.24
Sets with a tie-break28%13%
Tie-breaks won11/287/13
Wins in straight sets68%69%
Matches in the sample4244

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Zhizhen Zhang

Kaichi Uchida

  • 12/10/26LIlya Ivashka#221Challenger Jinan · Q22:6 4:6
  • 11/10/26WJesse DelaneyChallenger Jinan · Q16:2 7:5
  • 08/10/26LRyan Seggerman#565Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:4 5:7 4:6
  • 06/10/26WMasamichi Imamura#427Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:2
  • 22/09/26LFederico Cina#135ATP Chengdu · Q11:6 2:6
  • 14/09/26LRio Noguchi#215Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R326:3 2:6 3:6
  • 07/09/26LLinang XiaoChallenger Shanghai · R323:6 5:7
  • 31/08/26LHanyi Liu#822Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:3 3:6 2:6
  • 14/07/26LAlexis Galarneau#182Challenger Granby · R322:6 1:6
  • 08/07/26LDaniel Milavsky#319Challenger Newport · R324:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Zhizhen ZhangKaichi Uchida

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Z. ZhangK. Uchida
Hard court7–1237%16–2440%
Clay3–730%0–20%
Grass9–469%0–30%

Head to head

They have not met yet.