Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Zhu vs Matsuda 2:0: result and our tips

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Evan ZhuATP #479Elo 1619hard 1618
2:0final6:3 6:3
Koki MatsudaATP #481Elo 1500hard 1498

Our tips

Our tip
Zhu to win the first setWon67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zhu: 3 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Evan Zhu72%
Koki Matsuda28%

Elo: E. Zhu 67% · K. Matsuda 33%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Zhu49%
2:1 E. Zhu22%
2:1 K. Matsuda13%
2:0 K. Matsuda16%

First set

Evan Zhu67%
Koki Matsuda33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%72%
19.567%33%64%
20.559%41%56%
21.553%47%51%
22.546%54%43%
23.539%61%37%
24.537%63%36%

Sample: 4,259 matches

Games handicap

Evan Zhu −3.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 34%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Evan ZhuKoki Matsuda
5Aces3
1Double faults5
69%First serves in46%
74%First-serve points won72%
65%Second-serve points won41%
3/9Break points converted0/0
9/9Service games held6/9
71%Service points won56%
44%Return points won29%
67Total points won51

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. ZhuTourK. Matsuda
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won39%38%36%
Service games held78%76%78%
Breaks of serve26%24%20%
Aces per service game0.300.53
Double faults per game0.260.17
Sets with a tie-break14%20%
Tie-breaks won8/1513/17
Wins in straight sets60%58%
Matches in the sample4434

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Evan Zhu

  • 01/10/26LAlex Bolt#170Challenger Jingshan · R167:6 4:6 2:6
  • 30/09/26WHanyi Liu#831Challenger Jingshan · R326:3 6:4
  • 29/09/26WAleksandar Vukic#115Challenger Jingshan · Q26:3 4:2
  • 28/09/26WZhiheng XiaChallenger Jingshan · Q16:1 6:0
  • 22/09/26LHenry Searle#228Challenger San Diego 2 · R323:6 7:6 3:6
  • 21/09/26WAlafia Ayeni#448Challenger San Diego 2 · Q26:2 6:4
  • 20/09/26WAleksi LofmanChallenger San Diego 2 · Q16:1 7:5
  • 15/09/26LMichael Zheng#94Challenger Tiburon · R321:6 6:4 5:7
  • 14/09/26WOzan Baris#408Challenger Tiburon · Q26:4 4:6 6:4
  • 13/09/26WFryderyk Łechno-Wasiutyński#796Challenger Tiburon · Q16:3 6:2

Koki Matsuda

  • 28/09/26LKeisuke Saitoh#550Challenger Jingshan · Q13:6 2:6
  • 15/09/26LArthur Weber#409Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R321:6 2:6
  • 10/09/26LPhilip Sekulic#363Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R162:6 6:4 5:7
  • 08/09/26WMartin Borisiouk#869Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R327:5 7:6
  • 02/09/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Zhangjiagang · R163:6 2:6
  • 01/09/26WJake Delaney#357Challenger Zhangjiagang · R327:6 7:6
  • 31/08/26WFanming Meng#985Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q22:6 6:3 7:6
  • 30/08/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:7 7:6 6:4
  • 10/08/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Astana · R323:6 4:6
  • 07/08/26LGijs Brouwer#847Challenger Istanbul 2 · QF4:6 6:1 2:6

Elo over the last year

Evan ZhuKoki Matsuda

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. ZhuK. Matsuda
Hard court25–1858%19–1654%
Clay0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.