Shots on target and offsides betting: what bookmakers count and how many there are
A shots on target or offsides bet is an over/under on the number of these events in a match or by one team, for example over 8.5 shots on target or under 3.5 offsides. Of the three recreational bookmakers we track (rules read on 4 October 2026), one settles both markets on Opta data: a shot on target is a goal or a shot saved by the goalkeeper, a clearance off the goal line also counts, and hitting the post does not. The other two do not define a shot on target in their rules. In 10,244 matches from 34 leagues there were 8.6 shots on target and 3.2 offsides a match on average. Shots on target depend on the strength of the teams and go hand in hand with goals, while offsides hardly depend on who the favourite is.
Key takeaways
- 1
Over 8.5 shots on target landed in 48.7% of matches overall, 42.9% in the Premier League and three in five in the Bundesliga and the Eredivisie.
- 2
One shot on target in three ends in a goal, so over 8.5 shots on target and over 2.5 goals are largely the same scenario.
- 3
Offsides depend on style: the 10% of teams caught offside least often averaged 1.1 a match and the 10% caught most often 2.1.
- 4
The "shots" market also counts shots off target and blocked shots, 22.3 a match on average, so it is a different bet from shots on target.
Which shots and offsides bets you can place
These are stats markets, like corners or fouls. Most often you will find:
| Market | Example | When it wins |
|---|---|---|
| Match shots on target | over 8.5 | the two teams have at least 9 shots on target between them |
| Team shots on target | home side over 4.5 | the home side has at least 5 shots on target |
| Match offsides | under 3.5 | there are no more than 3 offsides |
| Team offsides | away side over 1.5 | the away side is caught offside at least twice |
They all settle like over/under on goals: on an x.5 line there is no refund. Two of the three bookmakers we track offer shots on target and offsides regularly, for the match and for each team. The third (Bookmaker B in the tables below) mostly has match shots on target in its regular offer, and offsides only rarely.
Watch out for markets with similar names. "Shots" (all shots, including those off target) is a different bet from "shots on target". One bookmaker also offers a woodwork market: shots that hit the post or the crossbar. A single player's shots on target, in turn, are a player prop.
What counts as a shot on target: Opta and the bookmakers' rules
We read the terms, market rules and notices of the three recreational bookmakers we track on 4 October 2026:
| Bookmaker A | Bookmaker B | Bookmaker C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Definition of a shot on target | according to Opta: a goal or a shot saved by the goalkeeper | not in the rules | not in the rules |
| Shot stopped by the last defender (e.g. a clearance off the line) | shot on target | not stated | not stated |
| Post, crossbar | not a shot on target | not stated | a separate woodwork market |
| Period | regulation time | 90 minutes plus stoppage time | 90 minutes plus stoppage time |
| Source of the result | Opta ("OPTA" next to the market) | "official sources" | "official sources" |
| Whole lines | not stated, only x.5 lines offered | general rule: stake refunded when the count equals the line | not stated, only x.5 lines offered |
What this means in practice:
- Every goal is a shot on target. The exception is an own goal: it is not a shot, so it does not count towards either team's shots on target.
- The post is not a shot on target. A ball that comes back off the post without going in is not on target under the Opta definition.
- A goal-line clearance is on target at Bookmaker A. A shot that would have gone in had the last defender not stopped it with the goalkeeper beaten (for example with a clearance off the line) counts as on target for Opta. An ordinary shot blocked in the penalty area does not.
- Penalties. None of the three bookmakers' rules deals with penalties separately.
- The data source. Bookmaker A settles on Opta data, while our numbers come from another provider. Providers differ on borderline incidents, such as a clearance off the line, so when the count sits right on the line, the bookmaker's data decides.
Opta counts total "shots" together with blocked shots. In our sample teams had an average of 22.3 shots a match including blocked shots and 17.2 without them: 5.1 were blocked. If you judge a "shots" line on stats that leave out blocked shots, you are about five shots out.
What counts as an offside
The same reading of the three bookmakers' rules, of 4 October 2026:
| Bookmaker A | Bookmaker B | Bookmaker C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What counts | offsides the team was penalised for: according to Opta, when the referee awards a free kick | only offsides after which play was actually stopped | no definition for match and team markets |
| Period | regulation time | 90 minutes plus stoppage time | 90 minutes plus stoppage time |
| Source of the result | Opta | "official sources" | "official sources" |
In practice the whistle counts, not the flag. If the assistant raised the flag but the referee did not stop play, Bookmaker B does not count the offside and Opta does not record it, because no free kick was given. A goal ruled out for offside after a VAR review ends with a free kick to the defending side, so under this definition it is an offside.
The general rules (postponed matches, the official result, disputes) are in our article on bet settlement rules.
How many shots on target there are: 10,000 matches in numbers
We checked 10,244 matches from 34 leagues, from January 2025 to September 2026. We left out matches with extra time (bookmakers do not count it) and matches with gaps in the provider's data.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds: over / under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% | 1.20 / 5.95 |
| 6.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% | 1.37 / 3.73 |
| 7.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% | 1.64 / 2.56 |
| 8.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% | 2.05 / 1.95 |
| 9.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% | 2.72 / 1.58 |
| 10.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% | 3.77 / 1.36 |
| 11.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% | 5.43 / 1.23 |
Fair odds are 1 divided by the frequency, without the bookmaker's margin. In a particular match the chance can be very different from the average, and you can compare your own estimate with the odds in the fair odds calculator.
- An average of 8.6 shots on target a match: 4.7 by home sides, 3.9 by away sides. Home sides had more shots on target in 54% of matches, and in 12% the two teams were level.
- Team shots on target: home sides went over 3.5 in 65.6% of matches, away sides in 52.0%. Over 4.5: 48.5% and 35.2%.
Shots on target by league
| League | Matches | Shots on target per match | Over 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional (Argentina) | 406 | 7.79 | 38.9% |
| Championship | 654 | 7.95 | 39.6% |
| Serie A | 484 | 8.03 | 41.5% |
| Premier League | 480 | 8.14 | 42.9% |
| Liga Portugal | 406 | 8.26 | 46.1% |
| Ligue 1 | 393 | 8.49 | 47.6% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 420 | 8.77 | 49.5% |
| LaLiga | 510 | 8.77 | 50.4% |
| MLS | 921 | 8.94 | 52.1% |
| Bundesliga | 381 | 9.45 | 59.6% |
| Eredivisie | 431 | 9.84 | 61.5% |
The gap between leagues is smaller than with fouls or cards: from 7.8 to 9.8 shots on target a match. The Premier League, at 8.14 a match and 42.9% over 8.5, and the Championship, at 7.95, are at the lower end. The Bundesliga and the Eredivisie are open, attacking leagues in which the 8.5 line goes over in three matches out of five.
Shots on target follow team strength and go with goals
We split the matches with odds by the favourite's win chance (from 1X2 odds with the margin removed):
| Favourite's chance | Matches | Favourite's shots on target | Opponent's shots on target | Favourite had more | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| below 40% | 1,222 | 4.23 | 3.83 | 47.0% | 8.07 |
| 40–50% | 2,472 | 4.57 | 3.78 | 54.1% | 8.35 |
| 50–60% | 1,464 | 5.14 | 3.40 | 64.8% | 8.54 |
| 60–70% | 870 | 5.83 | 3.16 | 76.1% | 8.99 |
| 70% or more | 593 | 6.93 | 2.70 | 86.7% | 9.63 |
A clear favourite has more than twice as many shots on target as its opponent and adds about one and a half shots to the match total. Team lines are therefore priced mainly from the match-result odds.
Shots on target are closely tied to goals: one shot on target in three (32.9%) ends in a goal, and the correlation between the number of shots on target and goals in a match is 0.53. For corners it was −0.01.
| Shots on target in the match | Matches | Goals per match | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| up to 5 | 1,717 | 1.52 | 18.4% |
| 6–7 | 2,291 | 2.26 | 41.3% |
| 8–9 | 2,474 | 2.84 | 57.5% |
| 10–11 | 1,873 | 3.36 | 70.6% |
| 12 or more | 1,889 | 4.18 | 82.7% |
Part of this link comes straight from the definition, because every goal is a shot on target. The lesson for your bet slip: over 8.5 shots on target and over 2.5 goals are largely the same scenario. In a bet builder the bookmaker allows for this, so such a pair does not get the odds you would get by multiplying the two separate prices.
The referee does not matter here. When we fitted our model, the referee got zero weight for shots on target and offsides, unlike with fouls and cards.
How many offsides there are
We counted offsides in 9,838 matches from the same sample. In the other 4% the data provider did not record them.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds: over / under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% | 1.25 / 4.98 |
| 2.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% | 1.73 / 2.38 |
| 3.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% | 2.62 / 1.62 |
| 4.5 | 22.8% | 77.2% | 4.39 / 1.30 |
| 5.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% | 8.06 / 1.14 |
- An average of 3.2 offsides a match: 1.7 by home sides, 1.5 by away sides. A match without a single offside made up 3.2% of matches.
- Team offsides: home sides went over 0.5 in 77.8% of matches, away sides in 76.1%. Over 1.5: 46.3% and 43.0%.
Offsides by league
| League | Matches | Offsides per match | Over 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 240 | 2.45 | 24.6% |
| Eredivisie | 398 | 2.63 | 27.9% |
| Brasileirão (Brazil) | 518 | 2.96 | 33.6% |
| Liga Portugal | 385 | 2.98 | 32.0% |
| MLS | 878 | 3.16 | 39.1% |
| Premier League | 456 | 3.32 | 42.8% |
| Serie A | 461 | 3.34 | 38.6% |
| Ligue 1 | 368 | 3.40 | 42.9% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 398 | 3.49 | 42.7% |
| Bundesliga | 371 | 3.58 | 46.1% |
| Championship | 627 | 3.70 | 48.6% |
| LaLiga | 492 | 3.85 | 47.8% |
The Premier League is in the middle of the table at 3.32 offsides a match, while the Championship, at 3.70, is second only to LaLiga. Sweden's Allsvenskan, at 2.45, has the fewest offsides in the table. The Eredivisie has the most shots on target in the sample and at the same time some of the fewest offsides: the two stats have little to do with each other.
Offsides depend on style, not strength
With offsides the strength of the teams hardly plays a part. The total in a match is the same in an even match and with a clear favourite (3.3 and 3.2). A favourite with a 70% chance or more is caught offside 1.74 times on average, its opponent 1.45 times.
The differences between teams, on the other hand, are large. The 10% of teams caught offside least often averaged 1.1 offsides a match, the 10% caught most often 2.1. Much of that difference holds through a season: a team often caught offside in one half of its matches in a season was usually caught more often than average in the other half too. What counts is the playing style of both teams, for example balls played in behind the defence and how high the opponent's back line stands.
Shots on target and offsides on SharkBetz
- On the match page the shots on target and offsides tiles show the expected number in the match, our chance on a ladder of lines and each team separately. We go through it step by step in how to read the match page.
- We publish shots on target and offsides tips only on x.5 lines that the bookmakers we track offer when the tip comes out. The rules are in how we publish tips.
What to watch out for
- "Shots" is not "shots on target". All shots according to Opta also include those off target and blocked, more than 22 a match on average.
- The post and the goal-line clearance. At Bookmaker A (Opta) a shot off the post is not on target and a clearance off the line is. The other two bookmakers do not say.
- An own goal is not a shot on target for either team.
- Extra time. In a cup match, shots and offsides in extra time do not count towards the bet.
- Team lines. Check whether the line is for the home side or the away side.
- Bet responsibly. Offsides are small numbers: one offside more or less decides the bet, and in a match with three expected offsides, none or six is nothing unusual.
FAQ
Yes. Every goal is a shot on target for the team that scored it. The exception is an own goal: it is not a shot, so it does not count towards shots on target.
Not according to Opta, whose data one of the bookmakers we track settles on. A shot on target is a goal or a shot saved by the goalkeeper. One bookmaker also offers a separate woodwork market for shots that hit the post or the crossbar.
At the bookmaker that settles on Opta data, yes: under Opta's definition a shot that would have gone in had a defender not cleared it off the line with the goalkeeper beaten is on target. The other two bookmakers we track do not say, and different data providers may count it differently.
Not towards shots on target, unless it was stopped by the last defender with the goalkeeper beaten, for example on the goal line. Towards total "shots" according to Opta, yes: there are about 5 blocked shots a match on average.
In 10,244 matches from 34 leagues it was 8.6 shots on target a match, from 7.8 in Argentina to 9.8 in the Eredivisie, with 8.1 in the Premier League. The 8.5 line went over in 48.7% of matches.
No. Of the bookmakers we track, one counts only offsides after which play was actually stopped, and the one that settles on Opta follows its definition: an offside is recorded when the referee awards a free kick. A raised flag without the whistle is not enough.
In 9,838 matches from 34 leagues it was 3.2 offsides a match. Among the leagues in our table, from 2.45 in Sweden's Allsvenskan to 3.85 in LaLiga, with 3.32 in the Premier League. The 3.5 line went over in 38.1% of matches.