Football betting statistics: what 125,000 matches tell you
Football is the most popular sport with bookmakers, with markets from the match result (1X2) through goals and handicaps to corners, cards and shots. We checked 124,772 matches from 29 leagues from 2012–2026, with closing odds, and gathered what they show in one place. Home sides win 44.2% of matches, a draw comes up in one in four, a match averages 2.69 goals and the most common score is 1-1. A favourite priced below 1.30 loses only one match in twenty, and a team leading at half-time wins three matches in four.
Key takeaways
- 1
Home advantage depends partly on the crowd: in 2020, when most matches were played behind closed doors, home sides won only 41.8%.
- 2
A draw is most common in even matches, coming up in 32.5% of games when the favourite is priced at 2.70 or more.
- 3
The clearer the favourite, the more goals: with a favourite below 1.30 a match averages 3.5 goals and over 2.5 lands 68% of the time.
- 4
On cards, check how the market is defined, because a 4.5 line lands in 36% of matches on yellow cards only and in 42% on card points.
How football differs from other sports
- There is a draw. A match can end without a winner, so the basic market has three outcomes: 1X2. That is where markets come from that make no sense in tennis: double chance, draw no bet and European handicap.
- Few goals. A match averages fewer than three goals, so a single goal, a penalty or a red card changes the outcome of a bet more than in basketball or ice hockey.
- The 90 minutes count. Bets are settled on regulation time plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties count only in "to qualify" markets. More in our article on bet settlement rules.
- Lots of statistical markets. Corners, cards, fouls, shots and offsides are markets that other sports do not have or rarely offer, and every bookmaker counts them a little differently.
Markets: general and football's own
Most basic bets work the same way across many sports, which is why we cover them in the Betting markets section, with examples from football:
| Market | Example | More |
|---|---|---|
| match result | 1, X or 2 | 1X2 |
| double chance | 1X | double chance |
| draw no bet | DNB 1 | draw no bet |
| handicap | AH −0.5 | Asian handicap, European handicap |
| total goals | over 2.5 | over/under, team total goals |
| both teams to score | BTTS yes | BTTS |
| correct score | 2-1 | correct score |
The statistical markets are football's own. We cover them in this section, together with how bookmakers' rules count them: corners, cards, fouls and shots on target and offsides. Terms from the whole knowledge base are collected in our betting glossary, and the main rules in one article: sports betting explained.
Match result: home win, draw, away win
In 124,772 matches from 29 leagues (2012–2026):
| Result | Share of matches |
|---|---|
| home win | 44.2% |
| draw | 25.9% |
| away win | 29.8% |
Home advantage is real and depends partly on the crowd. In 2012–2019 home sides won between 43.6% and 45.6% of matches. In 2020, when most matches were played without spectators, the share fell to 41.8%, and in 2022–2025 it went back to 43–45%.
A draw is most common in even matches. When the favourite is priced at 2.70 or more (the two teams are close), a draw comes up in 32.5% of matches, and with a favourite below 1.30 in only 11.6%. Draw odds are accurate: at odds of 3.00–3.29 the draw came in in 30.5% of matches, against the 31.5% the odds implied. Leagues, seasons and the margin bookmakers put on the draw are in our article on draws in football.
The favourite: how often it wins
The favourite is the team with the lower odds to win (home or away):
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Favourite won | Draw | Favourite lost | Average goals | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| below 1.30 | 5,257 | 83.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | 3.5 | 68.2% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 10,488 | 71.2% | 18.4% | 10.3% | 3.0 | 58.1% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 15,573 | 61.0% | 23.0% | 16.0% | 2.8 | 54.5% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 26,306 | 53.6% | 25.9% | 20.5% | 2.7 | 50.7% |
| 2.00–2.29 | 29,087 | 46.0% | 28.1% | 25.9% | 2.6 | 48.3% |
| 2.30–2.69 | 33,155 | 39.0% | 29.0% | 31.9% | 2.5 | 47.0% |
| 2.70 and above | 4,906 | 33.8% | 32.5% | 33.8% | 2.3 | 40.0% |
Overall the favourite won 50.8% of matches, drew 25.9% and lost 23.3%. One pattern stands out: the clearer the favourite, the more goals. Matches with a favourite below 1.30 average 3.5 goals and go over 2.5 in two matches out of three.
In the biggest fixtures the favourite has a harder time. In El Clásico, since the 2000/01 season the favourite by the odds has won only 20 of 50 league meetings, and the underdog 19.
Closing odds predict these figures very well, and the margin, as in tennis, sits mainly in the long odds. The details, on 374,000 prices, are in our article on betting odds.
Goals and scores
| Goals in the match | Share of matches |
|---|---|
| over 0.5 | 92.6% |
| over 1.5 | 74.7% |
| over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| over 3.5 | 28.5% |
| over 4.5 | 13.8% |
- 2.69 goals a match on average. The 2.5 line is almost exactly a coin toss: over came in in 50.6% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 52.6% of matches, and 0-0 came up in 7.4%.
- The most common scores: 1-1 (12.1% of matches), 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.9%), 0-1 (7.7%), 0-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (7.3%). Even the most common score comes up in fewer than one match in eight, as we show in our article on correct score betting.
The half-time lead
In the 38,879 matches in which one side led after the first half, the leading team won 74.0% of the time, and 17.7% of these matches ended in a draw. At the break 41.3% of matches were level. A lead after 45 minutes is therefore a big advantage but not a decisive one: one such match in four ends in a draw or is turned around. A full turnaround, a 2/1 or 1/2 reversal, is rare: every half-time/full-time result, and how often the favourite comes back, is in our article on HT/FT betting.
The statistical markets at a glance
| Market | Average per match | Typical line and how often it landed | More |
|---|---|---|---|
| corners | 9.8 | over 9.5: 51% | corners |
| yellow cards | 3.9 | over 4.5: 36% | cards |
| card points (yellow 1, red 2, two yellows 3) | 4.3 | over 4.5: 42% | cards |
| fouls | 22.3 | over 22.5: 47% | fouls |
| shots on target | 8.6 | over 8.5: 49% | shots on target and offsides |
| offsides | 3.2 | over 3.5: 38% | shots on target and offsides |
These figures come from 10,000–14,000 matches in 34 leagues from 2025–2026, counted the way bookmakers count them: the 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Ten football numbers worth knowing
- Home sides win 44.2% of matches, a draw comes up in 25.9% and away sides win 29.8%.
- Without fans, home sides won less often: 41.8% of matches in 2020.
- A favourite priced below 1.30 loses only 5.2% of matches, but draws 11.6%.
- A match averages 2.69 goals, and over 2.5 lands in 50.6% of matches.
- The most common score is 1-1, in 12.1% of matches. In the Premier League it is the best correct-score pick in 73% of 2026/27 matches, including many big-six matches.
- A team leading at half-time wins 74% of matches.
- Corners tell you nothing about goals: the correlation between the number of corners and the number of goals is −0.01.
- Cards are two different bets: a 4.5 line lands in 36% of matches on yellow cards only and in 42% on card points.
- Late goals are not a trait of a team: when a team conceded its goals says nothing about its next matches, as we checked in our article on late goals.
- The best correct-score pick lands in 12.9% of matches. We worked it out in our article on Skrill Final Score chances.
How to approach a football match
- Start with the odds. Closing odds know the most about a match. Our goals model predicted better than the league average but did not beat the market, as we describe in why a betting model is not enough.
- Bet at the right time. Odds stop moving much a few hours before kick-off, and the announcement of the line-ups is the last big move. The numbers are in our article on when odds stop moving.
- Check how the market is defined. On cards, fouls and shots bookmakers count different things, and the same line can be a different bet.
- Don't trust short runs. How often football streaks carry on into the next match we checked on 299,000 matches. Form over five matches and a head-to-head of three meetings are small samples. A team strength rating such as club Elo ratings takes far more matches into account.
- Compare odds. A difference of a few hundredths on every bet slip decides your result over hundreds of bets.
Football on SharkBetz
- Football tips: matches for the next few days with 1X2 chances, goals, BTTS, corners, cards, the referee and our tip. How to read them is explained in how to read football tips.
- Match page: a score forecast from the odds and from our model, lines for shots, fouls and offsides, form and the table. A step-by-step guide: how to read the match page.
- Football tips track record: how our tips have done, month by month.
- Club rankings: our Elo ranking of the teams in the leagues we follow.
- Team streaks: active streaks ahead of league matches over the next three days, with the history of such streaks, the league average and the model's chance. How to read them: how to read team streaks.
- Skrill Final Score picks: the most likely score of every match in the round, with percentages; the rules of the free game are in our guide to Skrill Final Score.
When and on which bets we publish tips is described in how we publish tips.
FAQ
In 124,772 matches from 29 leagues from 2012–2026, home sides won 44.2% of matches, 25.9% were drawn and away sides won 29.8%. In 2020, when matches were played without fans, home sides won only 41.8%.
2.69 goals. Over 2.5 goals lands in 50.6% of matches and over 1.5 in 74.7%, and both teams score in 52.6%. A goalless draw is 7.4% of matches.
1-1 (12.1% of matches), followed by 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (8.9%). No score comes up in more than one match in eight, which is why correct score bets have high odds.
Overall the favourite loses 23.3% of matches and draws 25.9%. A favourite priced below 1.30 loses only 5.2% of matches, at 2.30–2.69 as many as 31.9%.
In three matches out of four. In 38,879 matches with a lead after the first half, the leading team won 74.0% of them, and 17.7% ended in a draw.
Usually not. Match bets are settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and so are the statistical markets such as corners and cards. Extra time and penalties count only in "to qualify" or "tournament winner" markets.