Player props: bets on players, how they work and how to price them
Player props (player bets) are bets on individual players' statistics: goals, shots on target, assists, passes or tackles in football, points and rebounds in basketball, yards in American football. You bet on whether a player goes over a line, such as "at least 1 shot on target", or compare two players. What matters most for the price is the player's average and the minutes they will spend on the pitch: a striker averaging 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes who plays 80 has a 65.6% chance of at least one. That is why team news moves these odds more than it moves bets on the result. The margin on these markets is usually higher than on 1X2.
Key takeaways
- 1
A striker with 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes who plays 80 minutes has a 65.6% chance of at least one shot on target (fair odds 1.52).
- 2
If he plays only 60 minutes the chance falls to 55.1%, which is why player odds move most when the line-ups are announced.
- 3
A player who does not take the field usually means a void bet, but coming on for even a minute makes the bet stand.
- 4
A combination of five players at 1.50 each, with an 8% margin on every selection, returns about £68 of every £100 staked on average.
What player props cover
| Sport | Typical statistics |
|---|---|
| Football | goals, assists, shots, shots on target, passes, tackles, cards |
| Basketball | points, rebounds, assists, blocks, turnovers, three-pointers |
| American football | passing, rushing and receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions |
| Ice hockey | goals, assists, points, shots |
| Baseball | hits, bases, strikeouts, runs |
Besides a single line (over/under) you will also find markets such as:
- head to head (H2H): which of two players records more, for example shots,
- H2H with a handicap: the same, but levelled up, for example +1.5 shots for the weaker player,
- bands and exact values: for example 3–4 accurate passes or exactly 2 assists,
- combinations: several statistics of different players on one slip.
Backing several players to score first is a job for dutching: one stake split so that each of them pays the same.
Player props and the bet builder
Some bookmakers keep player props in a section of their own, next to the bet builder. The main difference is in what you can combine: a bet builder takes selections from one match only, while a player props section sometimes lets you put bets on players from different matches on one slip. Its markets are usually split into single lines, combinations, head-to-heads and specials.
How to work out fair odds on a player
Most statistics in football are rare and fairly random events (shots, goals, cards), so the Poisson distribution describes them well. You need two numbers: the player's average per 90 minutes and the minutes they are expected to play.
An example: a striker averages 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes and usually comes off in the 80th minute.
- Expected shots on target: 1.2 × 80 / 90 = 1.07.
- The chance of at least 1 shot on target: 1 − e^(−1.07) = 65.6%, fair odds 1.52.
- The chance of at least 2: 1 − e^(−1.07) × (1 + 1.07) = 28.9%, fair odds 3.46.
If a bookmaker offers 1.40 on "at least 1 shot on target", the expected value is 0.656 × 1.40 − 1 = −8% of the stake. On "at least 2" at odds of 3.00 it comes to −13%.
Minutes change everything. If the same striker plays only 60 minutes, the chance of a shot on target falls from 65.6% to 55.1%. That is why player odds move most after the line-ups are announced (how much line-ups move match odds is shown in when do odds stop moving), and a bet placed before the line-ups is also a bet on whether the manager picks the player. How often whole teams clear their shots on target lines is in our piece on shots on target and offsides betting.
How to check in general whether odds are worth taking is shown in value betting vs arbitrage betting and in the fair odds calculator.
Player combinations: the links between selections
As in a bet builder, selections on players from one match are linked:
- "the striker scores" and "his team wins": a positive link, so the combination's odds will be lower than the product,
- "the striker has 3+ shots" and "the opposing team wins": a negative link,
- two strikers of the same team, both scoring: a positive link (an open game) and a negative one at the same time (they share the chances).
Selections from different matches are independent, so there the odds are close to the product, but the margin multiplies with every selection, as in an accumulator. A combination of five players at odds of 1.50 each gives an eye-catching 7.59, but with an 8% margin on every selection it returns on average about £68 of every £100 staked.
Settlement: what if the player does not play
- Did not take the field: the bet on them is usually void (the stake comes back; in a combination the selection counts at odds of 1.00 or the whole slip is void, depending on the terms).
- Came on for even a minute: the bet stands. A substitute who comes on in the 88th minute will almost certainly lose "over 0.5 shots".
- Went off injured in the 10th minute: the bet also stands and is settled on the statistics from those 10 minutes.
- The source of the statistics: what counts is the data provider the bookmaker names. Shots and tackles are sometimes counted differently by different services, so there is no point disputing a settlement on the strength of another site.
The details are always in the bookmaker's terms, and the general rules are in our piece on bet settlement rules.
Can you win on player props?
Player markets are priced less accurately than 1X2 or goals over/under, because there are thousands of them and the bookmaker prices them largely automatically. In theory that leaves room for an edge: someone who follows line-ups and minutes closely can find odds that are too generous. In practice:
- the margin on these markets is higher than on the match's main markets, and with one-sided lines (only "over", for example) it is hard to check at all,
- the maximum stakes are low,
- punters who win regularly on players soon run into bookmaker limits.
For most punters player props are simply a more interesting way to follow a match. Stake small amounts and do not string them into long combinations.
FAQ
Player props are bets on individual players' statistics, such as goals, shots on target, assists, points or rebounds. You bet on whether a player goes over the line the bookmaker sets, or on which of two players records more.
If the player does not take the field at all, the bet is usually void and you get your stake back. If they play even a minute, the bet stands and is settled on their statistics. The exact rules are in the bookmaker's terms.
A bet builder combines different selections from one match: the result, goals, corners, goalscorers. Player props focus on players' statistics, and some bookmakers let you combine them across different matches too.
Take the player's average per 90 minutes, scale it to the minutes they are likely to play and work out the chance from the Poisson distribution. A striker with 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes who plays 80 minutes has a 65.6% chance of at least one shot on target, which gives fair odds of 1.52.
Because the number of minutes matters most. A player in the starting line-up has a much better chance of a shot or a pass than a substitute. Before the line-ups are announced, the bookmaker also prices in the risk that the player will not play or will only come on near the end.