Virtual sports betting: how it works, who decides the result and whether you can win
Virtual sports are bets on matches and races generated by a computer. A random number generator (RNG) draws the result from the probabilities set in a model before you see the animation, and the odds are those probabilities reduced by the margin. With a programmed return of 85%, every £100 staked brings back £85 on average. In practice that makes virtual sports a machine set up in advance to make a profit for the operator: it does not cheat any particular player, but over the long run every bet has a negative value, and a match every few minutes makes the losses grow fast.
Key takeaways
- 1
At an 85% return, £100 staked brings back £85 on average, and 20 matches an hour at £10 a match cost about £30 an hour.
- 2
The table, form and head-to-head record of virtual teams come from the same random draw and say nothing about the next match.
- 3
Doubling the stake at 2.00 wins back the losses only until a long losing run, and at a true chance of 42.5% seven losses in a row come in 2.08% of runs and cost £635.
- 4
A seven-bet doubling run still loses £8.30 on average, exactly 15% of what it stakes, because no staking pattern changes the programmed return.
What virtual sports are
Britain's Gambling Act 2005 describes a virtual game, race or other event as computer-generated images that resemble one played by or involving actual people, animals or things, images of an imaginary one, or any game, race or event whose result is determined by computer (section 353(3)). Betting on virtual events online needs its own Gambling Commission licence: the list of licence types includes a remote general betting standard virtual events licence and a remote betting host virtual events licence. The Commission licenses gambling in Great Britain.
The most popular formats:
| Format | What it looks like | How often |
|---|---|---|
| Virtual football | "leagues" modelled on the English, Spanish, Italian or German ones, a match highlights clip with the key moments | a match every few minutes, around the clock |
| Horse and greyhound racing | a race on a virtual track, bets on the winner, a place or the finishing order | every few minutes |
| Speedway, motorcycles, cars | a race between a few riders or drivers | every few minutes |
| Tennis, basketball | shortened matches or just the key points | every few minutes |
How the result of a virtual match is made
Suppliers of virtual sports do not publish their code, but they describe how it works, and the rest follows from the maths. It goes like this:
- A team strength model. Every virtual team has strength parameters. From them the model works out the probabilities of the results, for example home win 50%, draw 27%, away win 23%.
- Odds. The probabilities are turned into odds and the margin is added. Fair odds on the home side are 2.00; with a 15% margin the player sees 1.74.
- The draw. Before the event starts, the random number generator picks a result in line with these probabilities. At least one major supplier states that the result is fixed before any picture appears and the animation only plays it back.
- The animation. A "highlights clip" or a race that fits the drawn result is put together.
Three important things follow:
- Results are independent. The previous match has no effect on the next one. The table, the "form" and the head-to-head record you see come from the same draw and say nothing about the future.
- The operator knows the true probabilities. In real sport you can know something the bookmaker has not priced in (an injury, the line-ups). Here there is no information outside the model, so there are no value bets either: every bet has a negative value from the start.
- The draw does not "see" your bet slip. The operator's profit does not need results rigged against particular players. The margin is enough, and it works on every bet.
Is it a machine set up to make a profit?
Yes, in the mathematical sense. The return to players is programmed and below 100%. In Britain the Commission's technical standards set the rules for how the draw works: under RTS 7, which covers betting on virtual events, the outcomes have to be "acceptably random", which can be shown with statistical tests, and a "compensated" game that adjusts the probabilities of outcomes during play is not permitted. Under RTS 3 the operator has to make information on your chances of winning easy to find before you bet, such as the house edge (margin), the return to player (RTP) or the probability of winning, and the odds displayed in virtual event betting should reflect the probability of each outcome as closely as possible.
An illustration: a programmed return of 85% means that, whatever the matches look like, the operator keeps £15 of every £100 staked on average. The figure is the margin, set in advance, not a result of how the matches go.
The difference between a virtual match and a slot machine is therefore mostly in the presentation: instead of reels, a match spins. The difference from real sport is fundamental: here you cannot have an edge, because nobody knows more about the match than the generator.
What an hour of play costs
We assume a programmed return of 85%. From £100 staked, an average of 0.85 × 100 = £85 comes back.
| Stake per match | Matches per hour | Staked per hour | Average loss per hour | Average loss over 3 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £5 | 20 | £100 | £15 | £45 |
| £10 | 20 | £200 | £30 | £90 |
| £20 | 20 | £400 | £60 | £180 |
At a 90% return the loss falls to about £20 an hour at a £10 stake, and over the long run it is still certain. In real sport a match takes 2 hours, while in virtual sports several dozen events are played in that time. Speed is the biggest danger of virtual sports: the law of large numbers works in the operator's favour many times faster.
Myths about virtual sports
"After a run of draws, a draw has to come"
No. Every draw is independent. This is the classic gambler's fallacy: the generator does not remember earlier results.
"There are hours when virtuals pay better"
There is no evidence for it. The programmed return is an average over a very large number of bets, not a "pot" that fills up and empties. A run of wins in a particular hour is ordinary randomness.
"Just double the stake after a loss"
The martingale does not beat the margin anywhere. At odds of 2.00 it does win back the losses: whichever bet in the run lands, the run ends £5 up. The trouble is the run that never lands. If the 85% return applies to this market, odds of 2.00 stand for a true chance of 42.5% (0.85 / 2.00), not 50%, so each bet loses 57.5% of the time:
| Bet | Stake | Total staked | Payout if this bet wins | Result | Chance the run gets this far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | £5 | £5 | £10 | +£5 | 100% |
| 2 | £10 | £15 | £20 | +£5 | 57.5% |
| 3 | £20 | £35 | £40 | +£5 | 33.1% |
| 4 | £40 | £75 | £80 | +£5 | 19.0% |
| 7 | £320 | £635 | £640 | +£5 | 3.6% |
Seven losses in a row come in 2.08% of runs, about one in 48, and cost £635, which wipes out the profit of 127 completed runs. Over 60 bets, three hours at 20 matches an hour, the chance of at least one such run is 40.7%. On average a run capped at seven bets loses £8.30, exactly 15% of the £55.33 it stakes on average. Doubling changes the pattern of results, many small wins and a rare large loss, but not the return: every pound staked still comes back as 85p on average. And an eighth bet would need £640, which may be more than your bankroll or the maximum stake the bookmaker accepts. The same mechanism on draws in real football is tested in our piece on the draw progression system.
"Virtuals are fixed against me when I stake a lot"
The operator does not need to do it to make money: the margin is enough. Matching results to stakes would show in the statistics (results would drift away from the odds) and would put the licence at risk, while giving nothing beyond what the margin already provides. In Britain it is ruled out in so many words, since a compensated game that changes outcome probabilities during play is not permitted under RTS 7. The real "fix" is the programmed return below 100% itself.
If you play, play like this
- Treat virtual sports like a slot machine: decide on an amount and a time for the session in advance, then close the tab.
- Do not chase your losses: with a match every few minutes, chasing losses ends faster than anywhere else.
- Set deposit limits in your account settings and use time-outs. How to set a budget before you start is covered in our bankroll management rules.
- Do not look for a system. No strategy changes the programmed return.
If you notice that betting on virtuals is slipping out of your control, get help, for example from GamCare, which offers free, confidential support by phone and live chat.
FAQ
The supplier's random number generator draws the results from the probabilities of a team strength model. The result is fixed before the event starts, and the animation only shows it. The operator does not enter results by hand.
Not against any particular player, but their return is programmed in advance below 100%, so over the long run the operator always makes money. In Britain the Gambling Commission's technical standards require the outcomes to be acceptably random and forbid games that change the probabilities of outcomes during play.
A single bet or a session, yes, because the results are random. Over the long run, no, because every bet has a negative expected value and nobody can know more about the match than the generator. At an 85% return, £100 staked brings back about £85 on average.
In Great Britain, yes, with an operator licensed by the Gambling Commission, and online, betting on virtual events has licence types of its own. The Gambling Act 2005 counts a race or match whose result is determined by computer as a virtual event, and the Commission's technical standards cover how its random outcomes are generated.
The team strength the odds are worked out from is already in the odds. The history of results, the form and the head-to-head record are the product of earlier draws, which have no effect on the next matches. You cannot use them to find a price with value.
Most often virtual football, horse and greyhound racing, speedway and motor racing, and shortened tennis or basketball matches. In each of them an event starts every few minutes, around the clock, and every result comes from the same kind of random draw.