Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Aboian vs Roncadelli 1:2: result and our tips

·

Valerio AboianATP #347Elo 1615clay 1618
1:2final7:5 0:6 3:6
Franco RoncadelliATP #265Elo 1615clay 1629

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Valerio Aboian34%
Franco Roncadelli66%

Elo: V. Aboian 48% · F. Roncadelli 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 V. Aboian19%
2:1 V. Aboian15%
2:1 F. Roncadelli23%
2:0 F. Roncadelli44%

First set

Valerio Aboian38%
Franco Roncadelli62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%76%
18.563%37%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.544%56%47%
22.540%61%40%
23.537%63%36%

Sample: 4,413 matches

Games handicap

Franco Roncadelli −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes19%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Valerio AboianFranco Roncadelli
2Aces0
5Double faults2
55%First serves in73%
46%First-serve points won58%
46%Second-serve points won52%
4/9Break points converted7/10
6/13Service games held10/14
46%Service points won56%
44%Return points won54%
75Total points won93

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

V. AboianTourF. Roncadelli
Service points won59%62%58%
Return points won42%38%44%
Service games held70%76%67%
Breaks of serve32%24%37%
Aces per service game0.420.08
Double faults per game0.190.12
Sets with a tie-break9%11%
Tie-breaks won4/117/14
Wins in straight sets43%56%
Matches in the sample5258

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Valerio Aboian

  • 05/10/26LGenaro Alberto Olivieri#287Challenger Antofagasta · R321:6 4:6
  • 24/09/26LJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#162Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R162:6 1:6
  • 22/09/26WGenaro Alberto Olivieri#287Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R321:6 6:2 6:3
  • 21/09/26WMatias Franco DescotteChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q26:1 6:7 6:4
  • 20/09/26WJulian Cundom#944Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q14:6 6:3 6:2
  • 11/09/26LPedro Martinez#130Challenger Genoa · QF1:6 2:6
  • 09/09/26WAndrea Pellegrino#145Challenger Genoa · R166:3 6:2
  • 08/09/26WJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#382Challenger Genoa · R327:5 2:6 6:1
  • 07/09/26WLorenzo Rottoli#805Challenger Genoa · Q23:6 6:3 6:2
  • 06/09/26WLuca Castagnola#808Challenger Genoa · Q16:3 4:6 6:2

Franco Roncadelli

Elo over the last year

Valerio AboianFranco Roncadelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

V. AboianF. Roncadelli
Hard court0–00–10%
Clay30–2258%32–2457%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.