WTA 125 RoveretoRound of 32hardbest of three sets

Andreescu vs Ristic 2:0: result and our tips

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Bianca AndreescuWTA #168Elo 1736hard 1715
2:0finalrebuilt6:2 6:2
Mia RisticWTA #183Elo 1605hard 1583

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 20.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Andreescu: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Bianca Andreescu82%
Mia Ristic18%

Elo: B. Andreescu 68% · M. Ristic 32%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Andreescu62%
2:1 B. Andreescu19%
2:1 M. Ristic9%
2:0 M. Ristic9%

First set

Bianca Andreescu76%
Mia Ristic24%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes28%
no72%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.585%15%87%
16.574%26%79%
17.565%35%70%
18.553%47%60%
19.546%54%53%
20.539%61%46%
21.535%65%42%

Sample: 1,266 matches

Games handicap

Bianca Andreescu −5.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes17%

tour average 20%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 19.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Bianca AndreescuMia Ristic
4Aces0
—Double faults—
76%First serves in74%
90%First-serve points won56%
67%Second-serve points won36%
4/4Break points converted0/0
8/8Service games held4/8
84%Service points won51%
49%Return points won16%
53Total points won28

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. AndreescuTourM. Ristic
Service points won57%56%58%
Return points won43%44%44%
Service games held68%63%71%
Breaks of serve32%37%35%
Aces per service game0.330.16
Double faults per game0.300.11
Sets with a tie-break10%11%
Tie-breaks won5/85/10
Wins in straight sets63%73%
Matches in the sample3438

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Bianca Andreescu

Mia Ristic

  • 25/09/26LJessica Pieri#315WTA 125 Tolentino · QF4:6 4:6
  • 23/09/26WNoemi Basiletti#241WTA 125 Tolentino · R166:3 3:6 6:3
  • 21/09/26WArantxa Rus#256WTA 125 Tolentino · R324:6 6:0 6:3
  • 18/09/26LMona Barthel#180WTA 125 Ljubljana · QF2:6 2:6
  • 16/09/26WMiriam Bianca Bulgaru#350WTA 125 Ljubljana · R166:3 6:3
  • 15/09/26WMartina Colmegna#325WTA 125 Ljubljana · R327:5 7:6
  • 07/09/26LLina Gjorcheska#361WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R321:6 3:6
  • 28/08/26LHimeno Sakatsume#115WTA US Open · Q34:6 3:6
  • 26/08/26WFrancisca Jorge#209WTA US Open · Q26:1 6:3
  • 24/08/26WAyana Akli#282WTA US Open · Q16:3 1:6 6:4

Elo over the last year

Bianca AndreescuMia Ristic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. AndreescuM. Ristic
Hard court9–1145%2–167%
Clay4–544%20–1557%
Grass3–260%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.