ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Arnaldi vs Fritz 0:2: result and our tips

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Matteo ArnaldiATP #38Elo 1920hard 1864
0:2final5:7 4:6
Taylor FritzATP #12Elo 2131hard 2090

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FritzWon73%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Arnaldi lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Fritz won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won70%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 70%

    Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Arnaldi 17 of 20, Fritz 14 of 20 (tour average 67%)

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Lost32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Arnaldi 14 of 20, Fritz 10 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matteo Arnaldi21%
Taylor Fritz79%

Elo: M. Arnaldi 21% · T. Fritz 79%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Arnaldi11%
2:1 M. Arnaldi11%
2:1 T. Fritz21%
2:0 T. Fritz57%

First set

Matteo Arnaldi27%
Taylor Fritz73%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%67%
20.561%39%59%
21.553%47%54%
22.547%53%45%
23.540%60%39%
24.536%65%38%
25.534%66%34%

Sample: 3,032 matches

Games handicap

Taylor Fritz −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Matteo ArnaldiTaylor Fritz
4Aces9
—Double faults—
63%First serves in61%
68%First-serve points won80%
36%Second-serve points won43%
1/5Break points converted3/7
8/11Service games held10/11
56%Service points won65%
35%Return points won44%
67Total points won80

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. ArnaldiTourT. Fritz
Service points won61%62%70%
Return points won37%38%35%
Service games held75%76%88%
Breaks of serve23%24%16%
Aces per service game0.411.01
Double faults per game0.290.15
Sets with a tie-break24%24%
Tie-breaks won17/2922/34
Wins in straight sets30%57%
Matches in the sample4353

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matteo Arnaldi

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Matteo ArnaldiTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. ArnaldiT. Fritz
Hard court7–1139%24–1365%
Clay14–767%0–20%
Grass2–250%11–379%

Head to head

M. Arnaldi 1–1 T. Fritz

  • 25/07/25Winner: Taylor Fritz3:6 4:6
  • 27/02/24Winner: Matteo Arnaldi6:4 4:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Matteo Arnaldi

Taylor Fritz

First match in this tournament.

See also