ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 128hardbest of three sets

Tomic vs Arnaldi 0:2: result and our tips

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Bernard TomicATP #185Elo 1756hard 1750
0:2final3:6 1:6
Matteo ArnaldiATP #38Elo 1912hard 1853

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Tomic 13 of 20, Arnaldi 15 of 20 (tour average 54%); Tomic: 6 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Tomic 11 of 20, Arnaldi 15 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Bernard Tomic32%
Matteo Arnaldi68%

Elo: B. Tomic 36% · M. Arnaldi 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Tomic20%
2:1 B. Tomic14%
2:1 M. Arnaldi23%
2:0 M. Arnaldi44%

First set

Bernard Tomic37%
Matteo Arnaldi63%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.563%37%59%
21.557%43%54%
22.549%51%45%
23.542%58%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%34%

Sample: 5,034 matches

Games handicap

Matteo Arnaldi −3.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Bernard TomicMatteo Arnaldi
2Aces6
—Double faults—
70%First serves in87%
56%First-serve points won78%
43%Second-serve points won67%
0/4Break points converted4/7
4/8Service games held8/8
52%Service points won76%
24%Return points won48%
35Total points won57

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. TomicTourM. Arnaldi
Service points won65%62%60%
Return points won37%38%37%
Service games held80%76%74%
Breaks of serve23%24%22%
Aces per service game0.480.41
Double faults per game0.130.29
Sets with a tie-break19%24%
Tie-breaks won14/3117/29
Wins in straight sets51%27%
Matches in the sample6842

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Bernard Tomic

Matteo Arnaldi

Elo over the last year

Bernard TomicMatteo Arnaldi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. TomicM. Arnaldi
Hard court34–2261%6–1135%
Clay2–340%14–767%
Grass3–443%2–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Bernard Tomic

Matteo Arnaldi

First match in this tournament.

See also