ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Báez vs Vacherot 0:2: result and our tips

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Sebastián BáezATP #53Elo 1916hard 1870
0:2final4:6 6:7(5)
Valentin VacherotATP #14Elo 2017hard 1983

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 61%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Baez 13 of 20, Vacherot 15 of 20 (tour average 59%); Baez: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoLost57%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 57%

    Baez: 4 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Baez 10 of 20, Vacherot 13 of 20 (tour average 39%); Baez: 5 matches in a row over 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sebastián Báez24%
Valentin Vacherot76%

Elo: S. Báez 34% · V. Vacherot 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Báez13%
2:1 S. Báez12%
2:1 V. Vacherot22%
2:0 V. Vacherot53%

First set

Sebastián Báez30%
Valentin Vacherot70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%67%
20.562%38%59%
21.555%45%54%
22.548%53%45%
23.541%59%39%
24.537%63%38%
25.535%65%34%

Sample: 3,608 matches

Games handicap

Valentin Vacherot −3.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Sebastián BáezValentin Vacherot
5Aces15
0Double faults1
77%First serves in66%
65%First-serve points won83%
69%Second-serve points won64%
1/3Break points converted2/3
9/11Service games held10/11
66%Service points won77%
23%Return points won34%
60Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. BáezTourV. Vacherot
Service points won60%62%67%
Return points won39%38%35%
Service games held73%76%84%
Breaks of serve26%24%18%
Aces per service game0.180.71
Double faults per game0.190.27
Sets with a tie-break8%19%
Tie-breaks won7/1211/21
Wins in straight sets74%50%
Matches in the sample6042

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sebastián Báez

Valentin Vacherot

Elo over the last year

Sebastián BáezValentin Vacherot

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. BáezV. Vacherot
Hard court14–1450%18–1456%
Clay17–1455%6–460%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Sebastián Báez

Valentin Vacherot

First match in this tournament.