Berrettini vs Nakashima 0:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Berrettini lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Nakashima won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Berrettini 39% · B. Nakashima 61%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 72% | 28% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 64% | 36% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 59% | 41% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 50% | 50% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 42% | 58% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 39% | 61% | 30% |
Sample: 5,772 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 0:2
- Total games Over 23.0in · 25 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Aces | 5 |
| 4 | Double faults | 1 |
| 69% | First serves in | 57% |
| 81% | First-serve points won | 81% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 68% |
| 0/3 | Break points converted | 1/4 |
| 11/12 | Service games held | 12/12 |
| 75% | Service points won | 75% |
| 25% | Return points won | 25% |
| 69 | Total points won | 71 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Berrettini | Tour | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 20% |
| Aces per service game | 0.68 | 0.77 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.10 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 26% | 25% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/31 | 15/36 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 77% | |
| Matches in the sample | 46 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Matteo Berrettini
- 07/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#81ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:4
- 03/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 01/10/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Tokyo · R321:6 7:6 6:4
- 02/09/26LMariano Navone#47ATP US Open · R646:3 3:6 4:6 6:7
- 31/08/26WStan Wawrinka#142ATP US Open · R1287:6 7:6 6:0
- 15/08/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP Cincinnati · R644:6 7:6 3:6
- 14/08/26WTitouan Droguet#72ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 6:1 6:4
- 03/08/26LMariano Navone#47ATP Montreal · R1283:6 7:6 3:6
- 04/07/26LGrigor Dimitrov#127ATP Wimbledon · R323:6 4:6 6:3 7:5 3:6
- 02/07/26WArthur Fils#11ATP Wimbledon · R646:4 7:5 3:6 6:3
Brandon Nakashima
- 01/10/26LUgo Humbert#32ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · R643:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WSebastián Báez#53ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:1 6:0
- 22/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Cincinnati · SF5:7 3:6
- 21/08/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Cincinnati · QF7:6 4:6 6:3
- 19/08/26WNuno Borges#51ATP Cincinnati · R166:3 6:7 6:3
- 18/08/26WDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Cincinnati · R326:7 7:6 6:1
- 16/08/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#81ATP Cincinnati · R646:2 7:5
- 14/08/26LBen Shelton#4ATP Montreal · F3:6 6:7
- 12/08/26WRafael Jodar#13ATP Montreal · SF7:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Berrettini | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 12–957% | 25–1661% |
| Clay | 12–1055% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 2–167% | 4–267% |
Head to head
M. Berrettini 1–0 B. Nakashima
- 17/01/22Winner: Matteo Berrettini4:6 6:2 7:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Matteo Berrettini
- 07/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#81ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:4
Brandon Nakashima
First match in this tournament.