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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Boulais vs Dominko 1:2: result and our tips

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Justin BoulaisATP #428Elo 1543hard 1537
1:2final7:5 3:6 4:6
Sebastian DominkoATP #554Elo 1440hard 1479

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Justin Boulais42%
Sebastian Dominko58%

Elo: J. Boulais 58% · S. Dominko 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Boulais25%
2:1 J. Boulais17%
2:1 S. Dominko21%
2:0 S. Dominko37%

First set

Justin Boulais44%
Sebastian Dominko56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 54%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,909 matches

Games handicap

S. Dominko −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 31 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Justin BoulaisSebastian Dominko
1Aces14
2Double faults5
73%First serves in62%
75%First-serve points won80%
54%Second-serve points won51%
1/4Break points converted2/4
13/15Service games held15/16
69%Service points won69%
31%Return points won31%
91Total points won94

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. BoulaisTourS. Dominko
Service points won62%62%—
Return points won40%38%—
Service games held76%76%—
Breaks of serve26%24%—
Aces per service game0.38—
Double faults per game0.30—
Sets with a tie-break14%—
Tie-breaks won6/14—
Wins in straight sets75%—
Matches in the sample44—

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Justin Boulais

  • 27/09/26LAlexandre Reco#809Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q14:6 4:6
  • 22/09/26LHarold Mayot#233Challenger Saint Tropez · R324:6 6:2 6:7
  • 21/09/26LMatteo Martineau#245Challenger Saint Tropez · Q23:6 1:6
  • 20/09/26WMickael Kaouk#937Challenger Saint Tropez · Q15:7 6:3 6:2
  • 14/09/26LMatisse Bobichon#517Challenger Rennes · Q26:7 3:6
  • 13/09/26WTheo ArribageChallenger Rennes · Q17:6 6:2
  • 07/09/26LMatisse Bobichon#517Challenger Cassis · Q26:3 6:7 3:6
  • 06/09/26WMatis RocheChallenger Cassis · Q16:0 6:3
  • 19/08/26LBenjamin Bonzi#99Challenger Quebec City · R326:7 3:6
  • 01/08/26LAdam Walton#98ATP Montreal · Q15:7 6:7

Sebastian Dominko

  • 11/10/26LDaniel Masur#365Challenger Olbia · Q16:7 1:6
  • 16/09/25LAndre Ilagan#199Challenger Columbus · R323:6 6:3 4:6
  • 15/09/25WDaniel Milavsky#312Challenger Columbus · Q26:1 6:3
  • 14/09/25WEdward Winter#406Challenger Columbus · Q13:6 6:4 6:4
  • 10/08/25LGabriele Bosio#639Challenger Todi · Q16:3 3:6 4:6
  • 03/08/25LMax Alcala Gurri#133Challenger Cordenons · Q14:6 2:6
  • 21/07/25LHynek Barton#275Challenger Tampere · Q24:6 3:6
  • 20/07/25WMartin Krumich#289Challenger Tampere · Q16:1 6:4
  • 13/08/23LSamuel Vincent Ruggeri#646Challenger Todi · Q13:6 1:6
  • 07/08/23LLorenzo Rottoli#790Challenger Cordenons · Q23:6 5:7

Elo over the last year

Justin BoulaisSebastian Dominko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. BoulaisS. Dominko
Hard court24–2252%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.